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Cotton Market Needs Drier Weather


December cotton closed lower for the fourth straight session on Friday, as it continued to give back the gains it made off of hurricane concerns. The market still closed 0.85 higher for the week. After some heavy buying at the beginning of the week with the threat of Hurricane Sally bringing damaging rain and wind to southeast cotton belt, there was not much reported damage in its wake, and the inland flooding was not as bad as some had feared. The cotton market needs drier weather.


Global demand prospects over the rest of this year will continue to be an issue for the cocoa market. There is another late-October event that has ramped up near-term supply anxiety in the market, and that can help cocoa prices to remain fairly well supported on near-term pullbacks. For the week, December cocoa finished with a gain of 93 points (up 3.6%) which broke a 2-week losing streak.


While last week’s brutal turnaround was fueled in part by weakness in a key outside market, coffee was clearly pressured by a bearish shift in Brazilian weather. December coffee fell to a new 5-week low on Friday and for the week, December coffee finished with a loss of 18.95 cents (down 14.3%) which was a second negative weekly in a row and the largest weekly loss in several years.


While there have been recent bullish supply developments, the overall global outlook remains bearish which may limit further upside. For the week, March sugar had a gain of 78 ticks (up 6.2%) which broke a 4-week losing streak. Sugar was able to maintain upside momentum in spite of a more than 2.5% decline in the Brazilian currency which would encourage Center-South mills to produce more sugar for exports.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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