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Cotton Could Bounce But Trend Down

COCOA

While the market has received bullish supply developments over the past few months, cocoa has been unable to fully shake off near-term demand concerns. Harmattan winds have strengthened over West African growing areas during recent weeks, and that provided a boost to cocoa prices early in the day as that should have a negative impact on the region’s upcoming mid-crop output.

COFFEE

Coffee continues to have a bullish supply outlook, but the demand side of the market may lose some strength over the next few weeks. With global risk sentiment deteriorating, coffee remains vulnerable to additional long liquidation that would extend its correction from 10-year highs. The increasing potential for conflict in eastern Ukraine weighed heavily on global risk sentiment, and that pressured coffee prices as it weakens out-of-home consumption prospects.

COTTON

March cotton closed near unchanged yesterday after trading in a narrow range but also reaching its lowest level in three weeks. The weekly exports sales report was lower than expected, and traders are uncertain about the market with the Ukraine/Russia situation still unstable. The sharp drop in the US stock market plus weakness in the energy complex were seen as bearish forces.

SUGAR

Sugar prices were able to break a 5-session losing streak and are within striking distance of a positive weekly result as well. The market continues to hold its ground above its January low, and may be able to extend a recovery move into the weekend. May sugar was able to overcome a negative shift in global risk sentiment and key outside markets as they lifted clear of this week’s low. Energy prices remained on the defensive following their late slide on Wednesday, and that could have pressured sugar prices by further weakening near-term ethanol demand in Brazil.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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