Choppy Coffee Trade
Stronger global equity markets and sizable rallies in the Eurocurrency and British Pound provided little in the way of carryover support to the market as futures continue to correct the massive overbought condition. In spite of political tensions and fuel shortages during the fourth quarter, this season’s Ivory Coast port arrivals remain ahead of last season’s pace.
While this week’s pullback has taken coffee prices well below last Friday’s 2 1/2 month high, the market continues to hold its ground above its 3 major moving averages. While near-term demand prospects have softened over the past few weeks, coffee has recent bullish supply-side developments that provide prices with underlying support.
The lack of follow-through to the upside for cotton in the face of supportive movements in the dollar and the stock market is a major concern for the bulls. The dollar broke sharply to its lowest level since April 2018 and the S&P 500 traded to new all-time highs. These moves are supportive to cotton.
Over the past 4 sessions, sugar prices on average have closed 37 ticks below their daily high which indicates the market remains reluctant to sustain upside momentum. Until a key outside market can regain its strength, sugar remains vulnerable to additional long liquidation.
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