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China Trade Concerns Spark Selling in Cotton


May cotton closed slightly lower yesterday after a day of trading inside Friday’s range. The dollar was lower and the stock market sharply higher so outside forces were very positive. However, last week’s contentious meeting between top diplomats from China and the US has traders anxious about US export prospects. So far this year, US cotton export sales have been strong, and China has been the biggest buyer.


After a rough finish to last week’s trading, cocoa prices have found their footing and climbed back above their 100-day and 50-day moving averages. Near-term demand concerns remain a source of pressure, but cocoa can benefit from improving global risk sentiment and extend its recovery move.


A bullish supply outlook for next season has provided underlying support, as stronger global risk sentiment can help coffee to extend a recovery. A pullback in the Brazilian currency put early pressure on the coffee market as further weakness in the Real could lead to more aggressive marketing of Brazil’s remaining coffee supply.


Sugar prices remain on the defensive and are on a 4-session losing streak. Unless they can find significant carryover support from key outside markets, sugar is likely to head further to the downside. Energy prices extended their recovery move early in the day which provided sugar with carryover support. RBOB gasoline lost strength and crude oil fell into negative territory late in the day, however, and that took energy prices further away from levels that would encourage Center-South mills to produce more ethanol during the 2021/22 session.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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