Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. Good US harvest weather and better N Brazil rains is offering resistance to corn and soybean futures. Wheat was called higher due to higher Russia floor price but may have found some selling with improved rains in US plains and S Russia. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher on a better US economy. This could slow Fed rate cuts. Crude is lower on reduced Middle East tension.
SOYBEANS
SX is down 4 and near 10.00. USDA kept US 2024/25 soybean carryout at 550 mil bu. USDA did est Brazil crop at 169 mmt vs 153 ly. USDA est Brazil exports at 109 mmt vs 99 ly. Argentina crop is est at 51 mmt vs 50 ly with soymeal exports 28 mmt vs 27 ly. USDA est China imports at 111 mmt vs 104 ly. SX is back near 10.00 with some looking for normal SA weather pushing futures closer to 9.00. US harvest is est at 68 pct.
CORN
CZ is down 2 and near 4.13. USDA est US 2024/25 corn carryout at 1,999 mil bu. Some could see closer to 2,065 due to lower exports. USDA est Brazil crop at 127 mmt vs 122 ly. Argentina is est at 51 vs 50 ly. Ukraine 26 vs 32. There is talk China will import less than USDA est of 19 mmt, Given dry August, some are wondering how soon US corn yield will be 200 bpa? Managed fund short is lowest since July,2023. There appears to be too much US supply to push nearby futures above 4.40. There also appears not enough Black Sea supply to push nearby futures below 3.90.
WHEAT
WZ is down 3 and near 5.96. Rain are forecast for US plains and S Russia. Cheap Russia export prices have limited gains. Nearby Chicago wheat continues to find resistance near 6.00, 6.20 nearby KC wheat and 6.50 Mls wheat. USDA est EU crop at 122 mmt vs 135 ly, Russia 82 vs 90 ly, Ukraine 22 vs 23, Australia 30 vs 26, Canada 35 vs 33 and Argentina 18 vs 16.
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