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Central Banks Likely Less Hawkish in ’23


Stock index futures are higher to start the week as hopes grow that the Federal Reserve may dial back its aggressive monetary tightening.

Stock markets around the world have started 2023 on a positive note, driven by indications that inflation is slowing in the U.S. and in Europe.

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The 2:00 central time November consumer credit report is expected to show a $25.5 billion increase.


Although the U.S. dollar index is lower today, the longer term outlook for the U.S. dollar is sideways. Interest rate differential expectations, which have been bearish for the U.S. dollar since late September 2022 are now just neutral.

The euro zone unemployment rate stood at 6.5% in November, which is in line with economists’ forecasts. The number of unemployed people was 10.97 million in November, which was  broadly unchanged from October.

Industrial production in Germany in November increased 0.2% on the month, partially reversing a 0.4% decline in October. The previous month’s number was revised lower, from an originally reported 0.1% decline.


Futures are higher at the front of the yield curve and lower at the long end of the yield curve.

Raphael Bostic of the Federal Reserve will speak at 10:30.

According to financial futures markets currently, there is a 77.0% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will increase its fed funds rate by 25 basis points at the February 1  policy meeting and a 23.0% probability that the rate will be hiked by 50 basis points.

Higher prices are likely for futures across the yield curve.


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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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