Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SK is up 14 cents and near 16.72. SMK is near 486.3. BOK is near 4.51. CK is down 10 cents and near 7.48. WK is down 30 cents and near 11.23. KWK is down 29 cents and near 11.28. MWK is down 21 cents and near 10.89.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is finally a little higher.
China covid lockdown increasing raising concern about their economy and import demand. Ukraine President addresses US Congress virtually tonight. Russia faces sovereign debt default. Talk of Ukraine ceasefire weighed on corn/wheat futures. US Fed to increase US rates. Some feel rates need to be 2.5 pct to fight inflation.
W, E, S Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina dry. C Brazil rains. US south plains dry. Delta and SE rains.
Dalian soybeans, soyoil and palmoil were higher. Soymeal lower. Corn higher.
US Feb NOPA soybean crush 165 mil bu. 2nd Feb highest. Board crush margins +217. Brazil soybean export premiums higher and premium vs US and +125 cents versus last year.
CK-CN +35. CN-CZ +68. Inverse due to firm basis and talk of higher exports demand. USDA could still be 250 mil bu too low in US corn export. Exports closer to 2,800 mil bu. Domestic Brazil corn prices record high and near $8.66. 2022 Ukraine corn acres down 40 pct? Ukraine farmers not planting corn. 80 pct crop exported. Stocks 13 mmt vs 8 mmt domestic use. Lack of EU corn imports has talk of feed sector factories shutting down.
Black Sea wheat exports in question. Russia trying to export but domestic prices higher. Some estimate that EU, Russia and Ukraine may not export 13 mmt wheat vs USDA est. US south plains weather forecast dry. KS crop 23 pct G/E vs 35 previous. OK 24 vs 15.
Next key USDA report is March 31 acreage and stocks report.
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