ADMIS News
COTTON
December Cotton is near unchanged this morning after inching higher to its highest level since October 11 yesterday. The bulls are hoping for another strong export sales report this morning, now that two decent ones in a row have offered some rare optimism on the demand front. The dollar is slightly lower this morning after trading to its highest level since July 10 yesterday. The sharp increasing in the dollar since late September does not help US export prospects. US weather still looks good for crop development and harvest. India’s crop has been revised down due to recent heavy rains. Australia needs rain.
COCOA
December Cocoa has been in an consolidation mode since putting in an all-time high last April, but technical support has broken down this week with the advance of the West African main crop harvest. This week, ivory Coast’s marketing board, the CCC forecasted the nations midcrop to increase by 10% this season, although they did express some concern that recent heavy rains could lower those expectations. The ICCO predicted Ivory Coast’s total production to reach 2 million metric tons in 2024/25, up from 1.74 million in 2023/24 but below the ranged 2.10-2.25 million of the previous five years.
COFFEE
December Coffee traded to its highest level in a week overnight but was back near unchanged this morning. London robusta prices were also higher after falling to their lowest level since August 23 yesterday. Recent rainfall in Brazil has improved the outlook for the 2025 crop. More rain is needed, but the wetter trend has encouraged selling. Cash robusta prices in Vietnam fell this week on thin trading. Prices may have been pressured this month by the likely postponement of the EU’s anti-deforestation rule, which will require importers to verify their products did not come from deforested land. The looming regulation may have sparked aggressive pre-buying ahead of the previously scheduled implementation date, which was to be at end of this year. Tropical Storm Trami is headed to Vietnam’s main coffee growing region, and it may trigger heavy rains, which could slow cherry picking.
SUGAR
March Sugar pushed up against trendline resistance overnight, which if broken could spark a resumption of the uptrend off the August lows. There has been a spate of bullish commentary regarding Brazilian sugar production that could tighten and already tight supply forecast. Sugar trader Wilmar said yesterday that sugar stocks in Brazil at the start of the 2024/25 crop year were the lowest on record at 900,000 metric tons. They citied Unica data that is not made public and which only companies that are associated with the group are granted access. Wilmar said that Unica had recently revised Brazil Center-South stocks at the end of March down to 1.9 million tons from 4.3 million previously.
March Sugar is pushing up against a key resistance level this morning, and a breakout above there could confirm a bull flag formation that would project a resumption of the uptrend off the August low.
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