Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. Good US harvest weather and better N Brazil rains is offering resistance to corn and soybean futures. Wheat found some selling with improved rains in US plains and S Russia. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is sharply lower on talk of lower Israel response to Iran and concern about China and global demand.
SOYBEANS
SX is below 10.00. Dalian palmoil and soyoil prices were lower, soybean and soymeal higher. Rains in N/C Brazil will help plantings and soils. Total South America soybean supply could be up 19 mmt (700 mil bu) vs ly. China Sep imports were record 11.37 mmt. Season total 105 vs USDA 112. US NOPA Sep crush is est at 170.3 mil bu vs 165.4 ly. Soyoil stocks are est at 1,083 mil lbs vs 1,108 ly. US harvest is est at 68 pct. There is talk of some IN and OH yields lower than expected.
CORN
CZ is down 2 and near 4.06. USDA est Brazil crop at 127 mmt vs 122 ly. Argentina is est at 51 vs 50 ly. Ukraine 26 vs 32. There is talk China will import less than USDA est of 19 mmt. Charts are negative which is increasing new selling. CZ is nearing key 4.00 support but could see lower prices due to too much supply. There is talk China Sinograin could add to inventory below 4.00. US harvest is est near 42 pct. Interesting to note that US Sep tractor sales dropped 20 pct and lowest since 2017. 4WD Inventories rose 35 pct. Combine sales were down 41 pct vs ly. Lower Crude oil prices is offering resistance to corn prices.
WHEAT
WZ is down 5 and near 5.80 and below 20 DMA. Rain are forecast for US plains and S Russia. TX, OK and W KS could see 2.00-4.00 inches of rain next Sun-Tue. Some fear Russia floor price at $250 could actually end up being a ceiling price, Most quote Russia near $235-240. S Arabia bought 360 mt but no details. Key could be next Egypt tender but they is talk any selling must now go through Egypt military. There is concern that lower global energy demand could also reduce food demand.
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