BQC Morning Comments Sept 4.24

Geopolitics:

Here are some things the US government (Congress) could do to put pressure on Hamas and their hosts. They could take away the sanction waivers from Iran who is the sponsor state of Hamas. Congress could strip Qatar of it’s major non-NATO ally status and impose sanctions because Qatar is the home of the political wing of Hamas. The US could cut off aid to Egypt and Lebanon because of their involvement with Hezbollah in Israel’s north and Egypt trying to open the boarder with Hamas in the Philadelphia corridor. Congress could also ban Turkish and Qatar Airlines from flying to the US both countries are sponsor states of terrorism. Instead the initial reaction of the United States leaders was to put pressure on Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to come to a deal.

Macroeconomics:

The US job openings report due out today at 9:00 am CST may offer more cooling in the labor market. The jobs reports on Friday include: Employment change, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, non-farm employment change, and the unemployment rate. Friday’s Unemployment Rate report is expected at 4.2%, which is a 0.1% improvement from last month.

Ag Fundamentals:

Canola futures dropped to their daily limit of $45 o Tuesday which was the largest one-day loss since August of 2022. More than 90% of China’s canola imports last year originated from Canada. Spring Wheat harvest has a couple weeks to go, but has wrapped up in parts of the northern plains. Corn and bean harvest is under way in the mid-south and parts of the southern Midwest. Yields are decent so far, but parts of Tennessee and Mississippi have been hit with dry heat recently that have pulled production down slightly.

Weather:

Today there will be scatters showers across the northern plains and into western Minnesota tomorrow. The scattered rain will then move into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois by Thursday/Friday. There is a very slight chance of a frost on Saturday night in northern Wisconsin and a sliver of northeast Minnesota. Temps will warm up next week following this weekends lows. The next 10 days will be dry in Brazil. They are waiting for the monsoon to arrive. If La Nina returns in October, there will be a wetter trend in the heart of Brazil during the crucial plating month.