Written Commentary
MORNING COMMENTS
Geopolitics:
Russia’s President Putin laid out new revisions to their nuclear doctrine. The update proposes that “aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear-weapon state, but with the participation of support of a nuclear weapon state, should be considered as a joint attack on the Russian Federation. This comes after missiles have been recently launched into Russia from Ukraine forces, Ukrainian troops move into Kursk and a US governor giving Ukraine’s President Zelensky tours of weapon manufacturing facilities in the US.
Macroeconomics:
China is planning to inject $142 billion of capital into top banks. This comes days after the People’s Bank of China announced the biggest stimulus package since 2020. Chinese stocks are higher this morning. There is still some loops to close on comments made in yesterday’s top decision-making meeting. Seems like they are attempting to help middle class and young home buyers as well as improve their equity markets for anyone invested in Chinese stocks.
Ag Fundamentals:
Harvest continues and yields are coming in as expected in most areas. The recent rally in grains has been attributed to news of Chinese stimulus and dry weather in Brazil. Because it is still early to be largely concerned about Brazilian planting, The China monetary policy announcement is the main focus. December corn open interest is heavily weighted at the 4.30 resistance level, followed then by large OI at 4.50. The 20-day moving average for Minneapolis spring wheat has crossed above the 50-day moving average, creating a golden cross. The next level of resistance for December Spring week is 6.35 then 6.50.
Weather:
Hurricane Helene is expected to make landfall as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane. either way the wind speeds will be greater than 100 mph in some areas near Tallahassee. The gulf surge may reach as high as 18 feet. Florida neighborhoods get into trouble with surges as low as 8 feet, so this will cause some damage. On the bright side it should bring water into the river systems and help both the Ohio river and lower Mississippi river levels over the next week.
Flood Risk Areas over the next 3 days stretches as far north as southern Illinois and Indiana due to moisture pulled up from the gulf by Hurricane Helene.
Export & World News
US sold 180K MT of corn to Mexico. Brazil sold 65K MT of animal feed corn to Taiwan. Indonesia bought 450K MT of rice. Thailand bought 65K MT of feed wheat and are seeking an additional 130K MT. Japan purchased 112K Mt of food-quality wheat from the US, Canada and Australia.
Malaysian palm oil futures were up overnight 109 ringgit to 4152.
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