Written Commentary
MORNING COMMENTS
Macroeconomics:
Both Core Producer Price Index and PPI month-over-month were reported 0.1% higher than the projections. Core PPI at 0.3% – which excludes food and energy, and PPI m/m at 0.2%. NVIDIA and rallied back from recent lows, regaining over 250 billion dollars to their market cap. This came after the CEO of Nvidia Jensen Huang made comments about the demand for his products being “so great, it is really emotional for people”.
Ag Fundamentals:
Dry weather in the eastern portion of the US corn belt has most yield estimates leaning on the conservative side. The USDA WASDE will include objective yield data this month for the first time this year. Previously reported yield estimates were based on surveys. Corn yields are expected to drop back slightly from last month’s 183.1 bpa estimate. Bean yields are expected to remain unchanged. Yields out of the southern states are ranging from 150-160 bpa for corn and 50-55 bpa for beans. Corn yields as far north as Kentucky, southern Indiana and parts of southern Illinois are averaging in the mid to upper 160s, seems like an average year. Still concerned about some farmers cutting corners regarding Nitrogen application in Iowa. Many believe the highest production estimates are behind us, and we may see the yield estimates gradually decline the rest of fall.
Weather:
This morning’s drought monitor suggests that the only improvements over the last week were in Louisiana. The rest of the drought map is unchanged to slightly worse than a week ago. Francine is not heading directly up the Mississippi like many had thought it might. It is mostly tracking slightly east of the valley over Mississippi, Alabama and central Tennessee. Rain is expected to reach up into SEMO and southern Illinois. A small tail of moisture may whip up from Francine through Missouri into Iowa and Minnesota, but it won’t be much.
Excessive Rainfall Outlook Map shows which areas are at the highest risk of receiving rain that exceeds flash flood guidance.
Export & World News
Exporters reported sales of 118,626 MT of corn to be delivered to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year. This was the first corn export flash sale of the month so far.
Malaysian palm oil futures were down overnight 53 ringgit, at 3848.
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