Written Commentary
MORNING COMMENTS
Macroeconomics:
Jobless claims were 3K claims more than the estimate, coming in at 225K. This is an increase of 6K jobless claims from the previous week. Unemployment rate numbers are released tomorrow. the previous report had unemployment at 4.2% and we are expecting to see unchanged on tomorrows report.
Ag Fundamentals:
Russia’s wheat exports were reduced to 47.6M MT due to unfavorable weather impacting harvest. Russia’s total grain exports are estimated 55.4M MT down 2% from the previous estimate. Over the last month Russia’s major winter wheat growing areas received less than 30% of normal rainfall. US export sales for both corn and wheat were better than expected while beans were reported in line with expectations.
Weather:
Brazil is expected to receive rain and the market is reacting to the forecasts that show thunderstorms rolling into the central regions late next week. The US is still expected to be dry for the next 7 days. Minimum temperatures in eastern South Dakota are expected to get down to 32 degrees tomorrow, but then will warm back up to see lows in the mid 40s for the rest of the weekend into next week.
Tomorrow’s Unemployment Rate is estimated to be unchanged from last month at 4.2%
Weekly Export Sales
| Sales 24/25 | Est Range | Sales 25/26 | Est Range |
Wheat | 443,700 | 150-400K | 0 | 0-50K |
Corn | 1,684,100 | 600-1000K | 0 | 0-50K |
Beans | 1,443,500 | 1000-1600K | 1,000 | 0-50K |
| Sales 23/24 |
| Sales 24/25 |
|
Meal | (40,700) | (50)-60K | 228,600 | 140-350K |
Soyoil | 30,800 | 0-40K | 500 | 0-50K |
Export & World News
Thailand bought 120K Mt of animal feed wheat. Algeria issued an international tender to purchases up to 320K MT of animal feed corn. Jordan is looking to buy up to 120K MT of milling wheat. Saudi Arabia issued a tender to buy up to 295K MT of hard milling wheat.
Malaysian palm oil futures were down 14 ringgit overnight, at 4182.
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