Written Commentary
MORNING COMMENTS
Macroeconomics:
The US Dollar index has come back up 4 points in the last 20 days. Some attribute this to better odds of the Fed easing interest rate cuts. It could be do to politics and the presidential election. Another reason may be because Russia’s President Putin is at the BRICS summit along with leaders from 36 other countries collectively dismissing the US dollar and it’s dominance over global trade. This of course is a problem for any country that currently has to deal with foreign sanctions. Crude oil is back to $70 per barrel nearby and could drop below $70 until the next war headline hits the papers.
Ag Fundamentals:
China bought another small flash of soybeans this morning. 130K MT at a time, hand to mouth, until they can use purchases as a stipulation. The US has until mid to late January until the crop starts coming of in South America. Brazil’s crop schedule is pictured below. Spreads and board values are expected to remain volatile for the next few weeks as the US decides on a new leader.
Weather:
There is a small storm front moving through the northern plains today and is expected to drop small showers over the northern states including Iowa northern Missouri and northern Illinois. Snow may fall as it reaches the northeast. The Soil Moisture map below is starting to raise concerns about planting next spring. It is possible that La Nina helps take out the red coloring in that map by then.
The 6 Month Dollar Index chart below shows the dollar’s recovery from it’s September lows. We are still not at levels seen in late April 2024.
Brazil’s Soybean Harvest is expected to start slightly later this year due to a late start to planting, but their new crop harvest will start at least by mid January.
The Soil Moisture Map needs a drink and some areas of eastern Iowa, northeast Missouri and northern Illinois have a 70% chance of over 1 inch of rain over the next couple days.
Export & World News
China bought 130K MT of soybeans from the US today. The US also sold an additional 259K Mt of soybeans. The USDA also reported 100K MT of corn sold to unknown this morning. Tunisia bought 125K MT of soft wheat in an international tender. Indonesia is in the market to buy up to 340K MT of rice, and the offer deadline has been postponed.
Malaysian palm oil futures were up 100 ringgit overnight, at 4486.
>>Interested in more commentary by Joe Mauck? Go HERE
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
