Written Commentary
MORNING COMMENTS
Ag Fundamentals:
Grain market is lower this morning following a neutral report Friday. One observation to note is the US soybean stocks-to-use ratio is back at 2014-2016 levels. Global stocks can expect to grow is the Brazilian monsoons kick start Brazil’s crop. The market is now very focused on rains in Brazil’s forecast and will react to changes in projections. Planting progress today is above 8% which is double from last week and about 10% behind last years pace. Some areas like Mato Grosso is 27% behind last years pace. Russia’s agriculture ministry told Russian exporters not to sell wheat to international buyers below $250 per metric ton on a FOB basis. Russia also recently announced a 41% increase in its wheat export duty.
Weather:
Western Kansas, southwestern Nebraska and parts of northern Indiana and Ohio will see light rain over the next 7 days. The rest of the country will remain fairly dry. The Center US temps are chillier to start the week but will warm back up to mid 60s by the weekend. Harvest progress should continue to chug along without weather delays. US river valleys are dry and could use a massive replenish before winter sets in. Barge drafts will remain restricted St. Louis and south until the river rises a few more feet.
US Soybean Stock-to-Use Ratio shows we are back up to levels last seen in 2014-2020. Reported at 12.5% on Friday’s WASDE report.
Memphis River Gauge measures at -6 feet this morning. They have restricted barge drafts below -2.5 feet (red line).
South American 10 day Precip Forecast Map has 3-4 inches of rain lined up for most of the growing areas.
Export & World News
South Korea purchased 120K MT of soybean meal. Jordan issued an international tender to purchase milling wheat and barley, 120K MT of each. Bangladesh is looking to buy 50K MT of milling wheat.
Malaysian palm oil futures prices overnight were down 36 ringgit, at 4314.
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