Written Commentary
MORNING COMMENTS
Macroeconomics:
Jobless claims were higher than expected on this morning’s weekly report. That is the highest claims number since June of 2023. The market is forced to speculate the economic impact f both Hurricane Helena and Milton for the next few months while recovery begins in the regions effected by the storms. Core CPI, which focuses around food and energy, was reported at 0.3%, above estimates at 0.2%. I expect this to continue higher fueled by the east coast storm recovery over the coming months as well as the possibility of the east coast port strike to restart in January.
Ag Fundamentals:
Tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report is the main focus for this weeks commodity traders. Corn yields are expected to come in lower than last month, with an average guess of 183.4 bpa. This may take production slightly lower, but it will still be above 15 billion bushels. Corn usage and exports have allowed some to believe US corn ending stocks should be below 2 billion bushels which would be bullish. Corn export sales were in line with expectations at 1.222 MMT, but lower than the previous week which was 1.684 MMT. Soybeans are trading off of Brazilian rain. The next 10-14 days are showing plenty of precipitation in Brazil’s forecast. If the forecast is accurate we could see further slide in bean prices, but if the rains come up short we could rebound to September highs. The WASDE soybean estimates are flat compared to last month’s report, any deviation will shake the market. Weekly bean export sales were in line at 1.264 MMT, lower than the 1.443 MMT reported the previous. Soybean meal weekly exports came in 36K MT higher than the estimate range.
Brazil’s 10-Day Forecast has plenty of rain to kick start their planting season. If they start to take any of this rain out of the forecast bean values could rebound.
Jobless Claims jumped to 258K which was higher than the expected 231K and the highest reported claims since June of 2023.
Weekly Export Sales
| Sales 24/25 | Est Range | Sales 25/26 | Est Range |
Wheat | 433,600 | 250-550K | 5,500 | 0-50K |
Corn | 1,222,100 | 900-1700K | 0 | 0-50K |
Beans | 1,264,300 | 800-1700K | 8,400 | 0-50K |
| Sales 23/24 |
| Sales 24/25 |
|
Meal | 86,800 | (50)-50K | 165,700 | 100-400K |
Soyoil | 300 | (10)-10K | 3,800 | 0-20K |
Export & World News
US sold 126K MT of corn to unknown destinations. South Korea bought 30K MT of milling wheat from the US. Jordan issued an international tender to buy up to 120K MT of milling wheat.
Malaysian palm oil futures were down 17 ringgit, at 4235.
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