Written Commentary
MORNING COMMENTS
Geopolitics:
There are still 19 House of Representative seats left to be decided. In order for the Republican party to gain a majority in the House, they will need 9 of the remaining 19 undecided seats to win. Their votes are still being counted and according to data already cast republicans are leading in 11 of the 19.
Macroeconomics:
The Fed will announce their decision today at 1:00pm CST and there will be a press conference at 1:30pm with Jerome Powell speaking. This morning the probability of a 25 basis point cut is the most likely. One can expect increased volatility into the weekend if the Fed announces anything other than the 25 pt cut. Weekly EIA petroleum stocks came in higher than expected yesterday, which is bearish crude oil. Crude is down to start trade this morning. Price per barrel is still holding above $71 per barrel. The Goldman roll begins today and we should also hear news from China about their decision on stimulus later this evening.
Ag Fundamentals:
Export sales last week for both corn and beans were better than expected in this morning’s report. River levels are expected to improve due to the recent Midwestern rains. Full drafted barges can be loaded once the river at Memphis reaches above -2.5 feet. According to the forecast we should see at least a 9 day window between November 9th and 18th when logistics on the river will feel relief. Ethanol production was higher again last week. Last week’s ethanol production recorded 23,000 barrels more per day than the previous week at 1,105K barrels total per day. Ethanol stocks were slightly higher, but demand is keeping pressure on increasing the stock number much at all. Estimates are predicting China is needing to buy up to 15 million tons of soybeans buy the end of February 2025. South America may supply some of that, but they will need to make some purchases from the US soon to satisfy their crush facilities needs.
The Mississippi River Gauge at Memphis has improved and the window of proper water levels has increased to close to 10 days. Expect drafts and tow sizes to improve closer to normal.
Tropical Storm Rafael has lost some steam and has diverted west toward the eastern coast of Mexico. This is good for our export facilities in Louisiana.
The Last 30 Day Precipitation Anomaly Map for Brazil has a couple drier than normal areas. So far the majority of the Brazilian growing areas have received enough rain to expect normal emergence.
Export & World News
South Korea bought 100K MT of milling wheat into their flour mills, from the US and Australia. Japan said yesterday they are looking to buy 65K MT of feed wheat and 25K MT of barley in an international tender.
Malaysian palm oil futures were up 35 ringgit overnight, at 4952.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
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