Written Commentary
MORNING COMMENTS
Geopolitics:
President Joe Biden has opened the door for Ukraine to use long-range US missiles for strikes against Russia. Russia struck Ukraine with 120 missiles and 90 drones on Sunday. 144 of them were shot down by Ukrainian defenses. This was the largest attack in 3 months and killed as many as 8 people. Russia was targeting Ukraine’s infrastructure according to Ukraine’s president Zelensky.
Macroeconomics:
The next Fed meeting is 1 month from today. The odds are still favoring a 25 basis point cut, but the probabilities have gravitated toward 50/50 cut/no cut. NVIDIA, the world’s most valuable company, will report earnings on Wednesday. Walmart will report Q3 earnings tomorrow and John Deere on Thursday.
Ag Fundamentals:
Wheat getting a boost this morning from unsettling news from the Black Sea market with Russia striking Ukraine and Biden approving long-range strikes against Russia. December is coming up quick with first notice day on Friday November 29th. Corn wants to hold support at the 50 day moving average on the March futures. Beans are attempting to hold the $10 line. Central Illinois and Missouri are still able to receive above $10 cash bids at these values. Hearing some offers from producers in those areas around $10.80-11. The US farmer has about 50% of their bean crop unsold. It is becoming more difficult for the commercial to replace grain sold to the processor without improved basis values or a board rally. Soybean oil is down again today, testing the 200 day moving average. Soybean oil has been reacting to the Malaysian palm oil market which is down over 3% overnight. The US dollar is still holding above 106 points on the index and crude is up a dollar this morning.
The Long Range Missiles that Biden just approved for use in Ukraine can travel about 190 miles. Below i have marked 190 miles from Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, to the border of Kursk where some fighting taking place on the ground. The second line extending north 190 miles toward Moscow from there, wont reach too far into Russian territory.
Left: Next 7 Days of Snowfall
Right: Next 2 Weeks of Snowfall
Export & World News
South Korea bought around 134K Mt of animal feed corn on Friday in an international tender. 30K Mt of soybeans were sold to India. 261K MT of soybeans were sold to Mexico from the US and 130K MT of soybean cake and meal was sold to the Philippines.
Malaysian palm oil futures were down 161 ringgit overnight, at 4927.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
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