Written Commentary
MORNING COMMENTS
Macroeconomics:
Non farm payrolls only added 12K jobs in October. Unemployment was unchanged and average hourly earnings was slightly higher than expected. Within professional and business services there were -49K less jobs in October; this is a trend for this sector – they are down -577K jobs since March of 2022. Healthcare and government jobs led the field and kept the report in positive territory. The market reacted positively because we are in a situation were “bad news is good news”. It’s good because the worse the labor market looks on paper, the more likely the Fed will continue cutting rates.
Ag Fundamentals:
781K MT (30.75 million bushels) of corn sold to Mexico this morning! 65K of that will be for 25/26 marketing year, but the majority will be for the current year. Mexico has been the backbone of our corn export program and this is the second largest flash sale this month, which was 41 million bushels on October 16th. Additionally there were 198K MT of soybean sales reported to unknown destinations, and India bought 30K MT of soybean oil from the US. Would be nice to see an large sale of beans to China before Tuesday next week, but it seems very unlikely. Bean export books are as blank as they were during the trade war.
Weather:
Rain over the next 15 days should solve most of the winter wheat condition issues as well as improve the soil moisture and river levels. Expect a chilly weekend with temps raising back up to mid 60s by Monday in the Midwest.
Wednesday Oct 30th Soil Moisture Map was showing poor conditions but may be cured with recent and expected rains between now and mid Nov
Today’s Soil Moisture Map looks much better but still showing dryness in western Kansas and central Oklahoma where winter wheat is grown.
Winter Wheat Growing Areas in the US:
Rain Expected Through November 15th:
Non-Farm Employment Change was expected to be +106K and came in much lower at +12K more employed people during October. Employment trending up in both healthcare and government (+40K new gov jobs). They are sting manufacturing jobs (-40K) are lower due to strike activity Unemployment was unchanged at 4.1%. The report also covers the effects of Hurricane Helene (Sept, 26th) and Milton (Oct 9th).
Export & World News
Algeria bought 600K MT of milling wheat in an international tender.
Malaysian palm oil futures were up 176 ringgit overnight, now at 4872.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
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