Written Commentary
OPENING COMMENTS
Happy New Year!
Ag Fundamentals:
March soybeans bounce off the 20-day moving average and could get a good grip of support if we close above the 50-day at 1001’0. The US window is open until the first couple weeks of February, a 6 week window. Argentina is drier than normal but Brazil is receiving the rains needed to meet the USDA expectations of a record 169 MMT bean crop. January deliveries reported a whopping 1,116 contracts of soymeal tendered. of those 1041 were from Citigroup, Bunge had 35, Dreyfus35, and Cargill 60. Cargill owned all 425 soyoil contracts. The 109 soybean contracts were mostly ADMIS with 100 and Advantage with 9. Corn saw managed money increase their long positions to as high as 166K. Funds has gone from a record -350K contracts short to 160K long and the price has only increased 50¢. What happens when the funds decide liquidate their length following news of a jump in planted corn acres in the US next year? Hard to say if the ethanol and export market can continue to build strength until then, or if we will see a weather issue in SA before then. Chicago wheat broke through the 20 day moving average and will need to close higher to find support above 550’0. Spring wheat on the other hand is struggling to clear the 20-day and is feeling a lot of resistance at 600’0.
Weather:
The next two weeks will give several inches of snow to scattered portions of the central US. The concerning areas are northern Missouri and anywhere south of Tennessee. Throughout the Northern Plains an Midwest there will be stifling cold temperatures arriving in that same time frame.
Next 15 Days of Snow. I circled the areas with the most concern. Temperatures are going to be extremely low following the 2nd of January.
Colder than Normal Weather is expected to seep into the center of the US and leak further into the mid south and southeast. Atlanta may receive some snow this year.
CBOT January Deliveries (# of Contracts)
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New Years Eve and January 9th Schedule
New Years holiday, 12/31-1/2nd
Tues 12/31, Normal session
Wed 1/1, Day and evening market closed
Thurs 1/2, Normal day session, 8:30 am CST open and 1:20 pm CST close
Late President Jimmy Carter Day of Mourning -Thursday Jan 9th
CME Ag markets will close at 12:15 pm CST
Export & World News
Malaysian palm oil futures were down 103 ringgit overnight, at4448
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
>>Interested in more commentary by Joe Mauck? Go HERE
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