Written Commentary
MORNING COMMENTS
Geopolitics:
“The American Relief Act, 2025” was passed after taking it down from 1,547 pages to just 118 pages. The bill included $100 billion in disaster relief funds for hurricane recovery, and $10 billion in aid to farmers. It also included the rebuilding of the Francis Scott Key Bridge which was struck by a cargo ship back in March. The Debt ceiling was not raised and lawmakers said they will debate that in the new year. The bill excluded a pay raise to lawmakers, changes to healthcare, and other provisions aimed at deceptive advertising. Aside from the bill, Trump took to Truth social and began a conversation around the Panama Canal and the maritime choke point it has become. China has built ports on both sides of the canal and Trump is looking to bulldoze competition out of the Western Hemisphere. Using the Navy’s need to have the option to rapidly deploy ships from the Atlantic to the Pacific as leverage could improve trade shipping costs.
Macroeconomics:
Equity markets are looking for the “Santa Claus Rally” typically seen between Christmas Eve and January 3rd. In the last 75 years the S&P as increased 1.3% on average during that time frame. The US dollar is up testing 108’0 dragging currencies around the world down. Crude oil is down below $70 per barrel and Natural Gas has rallied to test 3.95, up from the $3 support level.
Ag Fundamentals:
Weather is South America is on repeat for the next couple months. Soybean acres in the US are expected to pull back next year as South America has the potential to add over 700M bushels of beans to the global balance sheet. Revisions to the USDA’s corn ending stocks resulting from a potential lower US corn yield could help support corn after exports and ethanol demand has carried it over the last few months.
EXPORT & WORLD NEWS
China has bought 500K Mt of US soybeans in the last week, despite the cheaper bean values offered in Brazil. Russia has shipped 54K MT of wheat to Egypt, out of the 430K MT sold to them in September.
Malaysian palm oil futures overnight were up 109 ringgit at 4542.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
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