Written Commentary
MORNING COMMENTS
Geopolitics:
Rebel forces (Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham or HTS) in Syria are attempting to build a transitional government following their quick takeover. Former Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad today said he has retreated to Russia following drone attacks on a Russian base in Kheimim, Syria. The rebellion took just 11 days to overtake Assad’s regime after a 13 year civil war. Meanwhile Israel strikes the boarder of Syria with missiles as Netanyahu approves plans to expand into Golan Heights. The US embassy has issued statements to civilians to evacuate certain areas as violence volatility rises.
Macroeconomics:
Retail sales will come out tomorrow morning at 7:30 am CST. Wednesday morning at 7:30am CST we will see data about housing starts and building permits. Most within the trade are focused on the Fed meeting that will announce rate movement on Wednesday at 1:00pm CST. Bitcoin hit all time highs over the weekend above $106K per digital coin and rumors swirl about several countries considering a crypto reserve.
Ag Fundamentals:
Some major subjects to keep on your radar heading into the new year are: President Elect Trump’s trade agenda between both our North American neighbors and aboard, The biofuel policy, the farm bill, the Chinese economy, South American weather, and planting expectations in the US this coming spring. Today all you can really say is the weather forecast in SA looks favorable and planting corn pencils better than soybeans for US farmers next year.
HTS Rebels began their offensive in late November in Aleppo. The moved south and took Hama, then Homs days later until they ultimately took Damascus. Damascus is located just northeast of Israel and just 30 miles east of Lebanon.
The Federal Reserve will announce their decision regarding interest rates on Wednesday at 1:00 pm CST. The market is expecting a -25 basis point cut from the range of 4.50-475% to 4.25-4.50%.
EXPORT & WORLD NEWS
In a much larger than normal volume purchase, Saudi Arabia bought a 804K MT of hard wheat in an international tender from multiple origins. South Korea bought 50K MT of non-GMO soybeans on Friday.
Malaysian palm oil futures were down 83 ringgit overnight, at 4823.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn $0.30 (expanded $0.45); Soybeans $0.85 (expanded $1.30); Minneapolis Wheat $0.60 (expanded $0.90); KC Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60); Chicago Wheat $0.40 (expanded $0.60)
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