Written Commentary
MORNING COMMENTS
Macroeconomics:
Crude oil dropped over $1 per barrel during a white house press briefing when President Joe Biden said “If I were in their shoes, I’d be thinking about other alternatives than striking oil fields.” Referring to the potential counter strike from Israel possibly targeting Iranian oil fields. Crude oil dropped from 75.44 to 74.42 per barrel.
Ag Fundamentals:
Row crops are lower for the second day, from a week that started off hot to leaving a bad taste in the mouth of a very undersold farmer. Average estimates suggest the US farmer is about 20-25% sold for the 24/25 marketing year on both corn and beans. Managed money covered over 60K short contracts in corn this week. The farmer sold into the rally. Funds are now only -13K contracts short compared to -63K short the week of Sep 24th. Funds also bought beans, covering 31,472 shorts. Both the BN and UP railways have resumed grain permits between US and Mexico. Grain shuttles will start to flow back and forth between the partnering countries more fluidly over the next few months.
Weather:
Winds up to 50-60 mph possible for North Dakota this weekend. The high winds are stretching from western Montana all the way to the Great Lakes. Minnesota will receive scattered storms on Saturday. The rest of the US can expect mostly clear weather. Brazil is expected to receive 2-2.5 inches of rain in their central regions between Next Friday and Monday October 14th.
COT Futures and Options Report showing funds covering shorts on both corn and beans. Funds increased their length in both meal and soy oil.
COT Dis aggregated Futures and Options Report detailing the farmer selling corn and beans this week while managed money covered shorts.
Brazil’s 30 Day Anomaly Map for precipitation is showing higher than normal precip for Brazil’s central growing regions.
Calendar Spreads
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Cost of Carry
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