BQC Afternoon Comments Aug 29.24

Macroeconomics:

Oil markets were active today with Libya suspending oil exports from five eastern ports. Their oil output numbers further sinking due to the country’s eastern and western governments disagreement over who controls the Central Bank of Libya. The eastern ports have a daily capacity of 800K barrels which is a significant percentage of the total 1.2 million barrels Libya pumps per day. The market does not seemed to be too concerned about oil stocks considering the pull back in global demand. News of a rate cut from the US Fed additionally has help Brent crude prices rise off their lowest price of the year in early August.

Ag Fundamentals:

“Oats know” or “Follow the oats” are phrases that stuck with me when learning more about the grain markets. For the last 20 years or so it has been thought when oats moved higher it might be a signal price movements in the other grain markets, in particular corn.

Weather:

The radar paints a long storm front that stretches from southwest Kansas, up through eastern Nebraska, across Iowa, touching eastern Minnesota and into Wisconsin. This front will break up over the great lakes and will scatter over parts of southern Illinois and Indiana by the weekend. Storms off the gulf coast of Houston are spinning up into southern Louisiana and will sprinkle across western Mississippi by the end of day Friday. Texas is expected to receive some much needed rain across the entire state by this time next week.