BQC Afternoon Comments Aug 27.24

Macroeconomics:

Surprisingly, consumer confidence was up month over month. (101.9 in July to 103.3 in August.) Even with signs of a recession and markets seeing the chinks in the US’s economic armor, consumers continue to have optimism. Why? Maybe the are seeing the stock market and climb and assume that is a reflection of the entire economy. As long as they keep paying the minimum payments on their credit card debit, i suppose all is well. There were concerns about the job market. Hope we still have not forgotten about the major revision the government needs to make on their year to date job report numbers (down 600K-1M jobs).

Ag Fundamentals:

Wheat found support with key reversals. China is looking to buy beans out of the Pacific Northwest. Probably a way to hedge against concerns of worsening river to Gulf logistics in the US. Rains in the northern plains will continue in an area that could use some dry heat. Heat and dryness will continue in southern Ohio where they could use rain. Brazil is dry for the next week, but that dryness doesn’t become concerning until we get closer to late September.

Weather:

Temperatures are expected to drop from today’s highs by 10-15 degrees in the next 4-5 days, pumping the breaks on this heat wave. The National Weather Service updated their 7 day tropical weather outlook this morning including a new system developing over the Atlantic. This disturbance currently has a 20% Chance of gaining enough strength to be considered a hurricane. It’s headed toward the gulf. The earliest this new storm would reach the Gulf (if it remains steady in that direction) would be September 7th or later. The lower Mississippi could really use a weak hurricane to regain logistical strength.