Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is down 2 cents and near 12.15. SMZ is near 316.1. BOZ is near 61.45. CZ is up 1 cent and near 5.26. WZ is unch and near 7.34. KWZ is unch and near 7.44. MWZ is down 1 cent and near 9.68. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher.
China Q3 data showed economic growth at 4.9 pct vs 5.1 expected and 7.9 in Q2. Supply chain problems and energy crisis may have slowed their economy. Most look for their economy to eventually grow at a higher rate. Dalian soybean, palmoil and soyoil futures were higher. Corn and soymeal were lower. Crude oil traded over $83 on supply worries.
Overnight soybean and soymeal futures are marginally lower. Some feel end user buying and completion of US harvest could offer support near 12.00. China return to buying US soybeans also offers support. Favorable start to South America soybean crop and larger than expected US soybean supply could limit rallies over 12.40 SX. US soybean harvest should be near 65 pct. Most look for US 21/22 soybean carryout near 350 vs USDA 320 due to lower exports.
US corn harvest is estimated near 55 pct. US farmer selling has slowed and ethanol margins remain positive. This and fact US fob corn prices are the lowest feed price in World is supportive. 5.40 CZ is key resistance. Most estimate US 21/22 corn carryout near 1,300 vs USDA 1,500.
WZ is near 7.34. Record low World exporters stocks to use ratio is supportive. MWZ over $10.00 could help support WZ and KWZ over $8.00. US 21/22 wheat carryout est range from 550-635 vs USDA 580.
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