Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
TGIF. Grains are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude, coffee and cocoa are lower. Gold and Copper are higher. US stocks are lower overnight. US House has yet to pass stop gap bill to avoid shutdown.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 9.73. Dalian soybean, soyoil and soymeal futures were higher. Rains are forecast for most of Brazil. Argentina forecast is drier over next 2 weeks. Argentina crop is rated 66 pct G/E vs 37 ly. World vegoil prices are trying to find support near contract lows. US and Brazil are lowering soybean export prices to compete for nearby China demand. China Sino Grain were net buyers this week of 500 mt of US Mar-Apr soybeans. They may have bought 700 mt US Jan-Mar last week. USDA announced 227.5 mt US soybeans to unknown, 152.5 mt 24.25 and 75 mt 25/26. US soybean export commit is up 9.7 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 7.7. Season to date Canada canola exports are 4.2 mmt vs 2.3 ly.
CORN
CH is near 4.43. Dalian corn futures were lower. Increase in Brazil ethanol use and drop in EU quality offers support to corn prices. Potential for record 2025 global supply offers strong resistance. US corn export commit is up 29 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 8 pct. Higher Real slowed Brazil farmer selling. S Korea and other Asia buyers have been active buyers of US corn this week. China remains absent in corn import buying. Weekly US ethanol production was up 2 pct vs last week and 3 pct vs ly. Stocks were down 1 pct vs ly. Margins remain negative.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.36. KWH is near 5.48. MWH is near 5.94. Wheat futures are more of a follower than leader. A strong US Dollar, Russia suspending sales to Syria, and S Hemisphere arrivals offers resistance. But 2025 exports from the EU/Russia could be 15 mmt below last year, and Indian domestic prices hit new highs offers support. US wheat export commit is up 9 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 20 pct. Still warm and dry in US plains. US SRW areas are wet. US N plains are cold. EU is wet. Black Sea is mostly dry.
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