Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SH is up 2 cents and near 15.21. SMH is near 492.8. BOH is near 59.38. CH is up 2 cents and near 6.73. WH is up 5 cents and near 7.62. KWH is up 8 cents and near 8.87. MWH is up 5 cents and near 9.22. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude up on talk Russia will lower production. Gold, silver, copper, cocoa and cotton are lower. Russia increased bombing of key Ukraine positions overnight. Ukraine raising concern about a new Russia offensive.
Both EU and GFS weather models forecast dry Argentina weather. For the week, SH range has been 15.05-15.33. Dry Argentina weather supportive while USDA increase in US end stocks offers resistance. SMH range 477-500 with market adding Argentina soybean supply concerns. Bears feel record Brazil crop could offset lower Argentina supply. Brazil farmers are active sellers of crop but Argentina farmer holding on to supplies. BOH down from 61.48 to 58.87 on active buy meal sell oil trade and lower Asian vegoil demand.
Analyst suggest that fact US corn export commit is down 41 pct vs ly versus USDA estimate of down 20 pct final US corn exports may need to be lowered. One group estimates US 2022/23 corn carryout closer to 1,340 vs USDA 1,237. Same group estimates US 2023 corn crop at 15,280 and 2023/25 carryout near 2,060. USTR asked Mexico to respond to request by Feb 14, to the question on the science behind ban on US GMO corn decree.
Wheat futures are higher on dry US plains weather. For the week, KWH range was 8.77-8.98. KWH found resistance from lower weekly US export sales and fact US HRW export prices are $70 to $80 higher than EU and Russia. Russia also did the Algeria tender. Dry US HRW weather keeps KWH +125 WH. MWH-KWH spread has dropped from a higher near +80 on Jan 10 to Thursdays low near +30.
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