Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SK is down 2 cents and near 15.41. SMK is near 481.9. BOK is near 62.48. CK is down 1 cent and near 6.79. WK is down 8 cents and near 7.54. KWK is down 11 cents and near 8.82. MWK is unch and near 9.18. US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Silver, copper, cocoa and cotton are lower. US Fed day.
Argentina forecast is dry for next 7 days. Some report only minimal damage due to weekend frost. Central Brazil forecast is wet but harvest continues. Brazil yields still being reported above average despite rains. Brazil soybean and soymeal prices are still a discount to US and there remains concern that this year’s Brazil crop exceeds storage. Argentina will need to import Brazil soybeans which could lower Brazil supply to China this summer. US season to date exports are up 4 pct vs ly. Soybean board crush margins back near +240 with oil share down to 38.75 pct.
Corn futures remains in a range. Prices continue to find resistance as US season to date exports are running 37 pct below last year with little talk of new business. Prices find support from concern about lower Argentina and Ukraine old crop and new crop export supply. Algeria is tendering for March Argentina corn 100 cents below Ukraine? Argentina corn exports could drop to 27.5 mmt vs USDA 35.0. There are 139 vessels waiting for inspection with no word on new UN, Russia Ukraine export corridor talks.
Wheat prices have dropped 50 cents since Feb 14 high due to lower demand and lower Russia prices. Jordon bought Russia wheat below $300 fob. US SRW is near $327. Rare US weather pattern with heavy snow and cold temps north and above temps with below rains south. S MN could see 20 inches of snow. US RR logistics remain slow. KWH-WH spread near +150. France is dry but rains are in forecast. East Europe farmers still holding on to large wheat supplies. USDA is expected to show higher US 2023/24 wheat supply at this week’s Outlook conference.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
