Ag Market View for Sep 22
US equity markets are up on less concern about Evengrande situation and US Fed may delay taper talk. Crude is higher on talk of lower supplies and higher demand. Forecast of cold US winter supportive. There is talk that EPA may announce cuts in 2020,2021 biofuel blending obligations soon. 2022 higher than 2021. This offset industry talk that increase soyoil use for biofuel could increase need for more 2022 US soybean acres. Informa est US 2022 soybean acres near 86.6 vs 87.4, cotton acres 11.7 vs 11.2 ly. Brazil is dry. Light Brazil rains next week. Trade hoping that talk more US gulf elevators will soon be operational could help US export sales. Weekly US soybean export sales estimated near 25-175 mt vs 42 last week. SX ended near 12.82. SX support 12.70. Resistance 12.90. Cash US soybean basis firm on declining old crop supply.
Corn futures ended higher. Crude is higher on talk of lower supplies and higher demand. Forecast of cold US winter supportive. Oat futures are limit up on concern over lower Canada supply vs US increasing demand. There is talk that EPA may announce cuts in 2020,2021 biofuel blending obligations soon.2022 could be higher than 2021. LDC CEO also talked about years to resolve shipping snafus, pandemic impact and food inflation. US 2022 fertilizer, labor, energy cost forecasted higher. Could suggest lower net farm income. 2022 K cost $650 vs 310 ly, DAP 775 vs 425, N 775 vs 440. Corn 2022 profit per acre $100, soybean $180. Informa est US 2022 corn acres 94.3 vs 93.7 ly, sorghum 6.7 vs 7.5, Double crop 4.5 vs 3.9. Informa est 2022 CRP 20.7 vs 20.7. Total all crops 336.0 vs 335.1 ly. Weekly US ethanol productions was down from last week but up last year. Stocks unch. Margins are sharply higher. Brazil corn exports 17-18 mmt vs USDA 22 and 35 last year. Trade hoping that talk more US gulf elevators will soon be operational could help US export sales. Weekly US corn export sales est near 300-800 mt vs 246 last week. CZ ended near 5.25. CZ support 5.10. Resistance 5.27. Cash US corn domestic basis firm to sharply higher as 2021 supplies drop.
Wheat futures ended higher. Wheat price were up on talk of lower World exports wheat supplies and need for higher US 2022 acres. LDC CEO also talked about years to resolve pandemic impact and food inflation. Informa est US 2022 wheat acres near 48.5 vs 47.0 last year. Higher labor, energy, raw material cost and uncertain food demand reducing food companies income. US domestic flour buyers unwilling to complete Q4 needs but are adding to Q122 needs. US weather cool and dry. Next week warm and dry. Some showers in SW plains. Russia rains helping winter wheat planting there. Weekly US wheat export sales are est near 250-600 mt vs 617 last week. World buyers looking for wheat especially milling wheat. EU quality is down. Word today Russia may ration wheat exports. WZ ended near 7.05. WZ support 6.80. Resistance 7.20. KWZ is near 7.06. MWZ is near 9.03.
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