Written Commentary
CORN
Prices rejected the lower trade overnight surging to a fresh 2 month high for spot Dec-24. Spreads also recovered to a 6 week high. Next resistance for Dec-24 is at its 100 day MA at $4.30. Ukraine’s Ag. Minister suggests their 2024 grain harvest could slip to 54.6 mmt, down from 60 mmt YA. Their corn est. at 25.8 mmt compares to the USDA forecast in Sept at 27.2 mmt, however above some agricultural groups suggesting it could be as low as 21-22 mmt. The minister expects they will be able to export 21.7 mmt of corn in 24/25 below the USDA forecast of 24 mmt. The European Commission lowered their EU corn production forecast 1.5 mmt to 60.1 mmt, vs. the USDA est. of 59 mmt. They also raised their import forecast 1.1 mmt to 19 mmt, matching the USDA est. Lower production forecasts in Europe combined with Argentine acres expected to be down 17% continue to support US exports. Potential problems with Brazil’s crop would only strengthen that argument.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was sharply mixed with beans up $.20-$.25, meal surged $15-$20 per ton, while oil was down 55-75. Bean and meal spreads jumped while oil spreads were mixed. An outside day up for Nov-24 beans while reaching a fresh 2 month high. Next resistance is the 100 day MA at $10.80. Dec-24 oil held support at $.42 while attempts to rebound were capped at its 100 day MA at 43.10. Dec-24 meal surged thru its 100 day MA while reaching a 3 month high. Next resistance is the June-24 high at $360.30. Hurricane Helene made landfall along the FL panhandle overnight as a Category 4 storm. Wind speeds topped out around 140 mph leading to an enormous storm surge causing catastrophic property damage. The eye of the storm moved quickly thru the SE into the Ohio Valley region. Rains will linger in the ECB into early next week. The outlook for the NW two thirds of the Midwest is dry thru the first full week of Oct. enabling harvest to accelerate. Beyond Helene the 2 week outlook remains warm/dry for much of the nation’s midsection. No significant change to SA forecast with driest areas seeing better prospects for rain in week 2 of October. The USDA announced the sale of 20k mt of bean oil to South Korea. Spot board crush margins jumped a dime to $1.54 ½ bu, with soybean meal PV jumping to 62%, a 2 month high. Strategie Grain lowered their EU rapeseed production forecast .2 mmt to 16.7 and also lowered their sunflower seed production .4 mmt to 8.9 mmt. The European Commission also lowered their EU production est. with rapeseed at 17.2 mmt and sunflower seed at 9.5 mmt.
WHEAT
Prices lagged today closing $.02-$.04 lower across all 3 classes however well off session lows. Dec-24 Chicago and KC remain in a $5.60 – $6.00 trading range while Dec-24 MGEX is positioned between $6.00 – $6.40. The European Commission also lowered their EU soft wheat production est. 1.5 mmt to 114.6 mmt. Russia’s Ag. Ministry raised their wheat export tax 16.7% to 1,246 rouble/mt for the period ending Oct. 8th. Ukraine’s Ag. Minister suggests they may have to limit the export of wheat as supplies are limited. Exports could be suspended if they reach 16.2 mmt for the 24/25 MY. Since July thru Sept. 25th wheat exports have already reached 5.6 mmt. The USDA is forecasting their 24/25 wheat exports at 15 mmt.
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