Written Commentary
CORN
Prices jumped $.09-$.12 today while spreads also firmed up a touch. Dec-24 closed back above its 50 day MA, however stopped shy of its September high at $4.16. Next major resistance is the 100 day MA, currently $4.32 ½. Price strength was fueled by growing weather concerns in SA and speculative buying. Major growing areas in Central Brazil are likely to remain hot and dry into early Oct. pushing back soybean plantings in the region which also impacts the 2nd corn crop plantings early next year following the soybean harvest. Last week money managers were lite sellers in the corn market selling nearly 2,700 contracts extending their short position to 135k contracts, well below the recent record short at 354k from 2 months ago. Export inspections at 43 mil. bu. were above expectations. YTD inspections at 84 mil. are up 6% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up less than 1%. Mexico was the largest taker at 19 mil. bu. while Columbia took 12 mil. Friday’s COF report showed Sept 1st cattle on feed at 101% of YA, in line with expectations. MARS, a crop monitor group in the EU cut their corn yield to 6.84 mt per HA, down from 7.03 mt/HA last month. AgRural estimates Brazil’s 1st corn crop plantings have reached 26%.
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was sharply higher with beans up $.24-$.27, meal was $9-$10 better while oil was up 45-50. Nov-24 beans stopped just shy of its Aug-24 high at $10.42 with next major resistance at the 100 day MA at $10.86. Oct-24 oil briefly pierced its 100 day MA resistance at 43.32 before pulling back. Oct-24 meal approached resistance at the September high at $328.50. Spot board crush margins slipped $.02 to $1.48 bu. with bean oil PV pulling back to 39.5%. US weather this past weekend was largely as expected with heavy rainfall stretching from the TX panhandle thru Central WI. Showers and storms will push across the central and ECB thru the middle of the week ahead of a tropical storm/hurricane that is expected to make landfall along the eastern Gulf coast region bringing heavy rains into the SE by the weekend. Little to no rain is expected for the NW half of the corn and soybean belt over the next 5-7 days. Last week MM’s were modest buyers in beans buying just over 8,000 contracts reducing their short position to 122k contracts. They sold nearly 3k bean oil while buying nearly 3k meal. Export inspections at 18 mil. bu. were in line with expectations however well below the 34 mil. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast of 1.850 bil. bu. YTD inspections at 45 mil. are down 6% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 9%. China took just over 6 mil. with 5 mil. going to the Netherlands. In addition the USDA announced the sale of 165k mt (6 mil. bu.) of soybean to an unknown buyer. AgRural estimates Brazil’s soybean plantings at just below 1%.
WHEAT
Prices jumped $.10-$.14 across all 3 classes today. Resistance for Dec-24 Chicago is at its Sept high at $5.98 ¾. For KC it’s at $6.04 ¼ and $6.37 ¾ for MGEX. Export inspections at 26 mil. bu. were above expectations and a MY high. YTD inspections at 282 mil. are up 36% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 17%. Last week MM’s were net buyers of 4k Chicago, 1k KC and just over 5k in MGEX. The combined short position across all 3 classes was down to 59k contracts, the lowest in 3 months. IKAR reports Russia’s export price for wheat ended last week at $217/mt FOB, up from $216/mt the previous week. SovEcon reports Russia exported 910k mt of grain LW, down from 1.06 mmt the previous week. This total included 840k mt of wheat. They project total Russian wheat exports for Sept-24 at 4.8 mmt, just shy of the 4.9 mmt exported in Sept-23.
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