Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.02 ½ -$.03 ½ higher as spreads continue to firm. It was an inside trading session for Dec-24 with prices holding above the $4.00 level. The 50 day MA now serves as resistance at $4.07 ½. The Dec-24/Mch-25 spread narrowed to $.15 ¼ , the smallest carry since late July. Lite rains yesterday around the Great Lakes region and ECB may briefly hold down harvest activities in these areas however much of the nation’s midsection will continue to experience favorable harvest conditions. The USDA announced the sale of 332k mt (13 mil. bu.) to an unknown buyer and 1,623k mt (64 mil. bu.) to Mexico. 41 mil. bu. is for the 24/25 MY with 23 mil. for 2025/26 MY. Crop ratings held steady at 64% G/E, in line with expectations. Harvest advanced 17% to 47%, vs. 42% pace from YA and the 5-year Ave. of 39%. Nearly 2.6 bil. bu. of corn was combined last week, among the largest volume ever. I’m showing this is the most advanced harvest since 2012. Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry reports their 2024/25 grain export have reached 12.5 mmt, well above the 7.7 mmt shipped at this point YA. Corn exports have accounted for 3.5 mmt. Brazil’s corn exports are seen reaching 6.22 mmt in October, slightly below the 6.4 mmt in Sept-24 and well below the 8.5 mmt from Oct-23.
SOYBEANS
Prices turned mostly lower with beans down $.08-$.11 closing at session low, meal was steady to $2 higher led by spot Dec-24, while oil was down 55-75. Nov-24 beans rejected trade over $10 while forming an outside day lower. It was an inside trading session for Dec-24 meal with support at yesterday’s low of $308.80. Dec-24 oil rejected trade above its 100 day MA moving back to the midpoint of yesterday’s range. Support is at the 50 day MA at 41.21. Spot board crush margins improved $.06 ½ to $1.68 ½ bu. while bean oil PV dipped just below 40%. The USDA announced the sale of 175k mt (6.4 mil. bu.) of soybeans to an unknown buyer. All agricultural areas of Brazil are expected to get rain over the next few weeks supporting planting and early crop emergence, albeit a few weeks later than normal. Most areas of Argentina are also expecting a good mix of rain and sunshine over the next few weeks beneficial to crop development. With US soybean harvest now well over 50% complete the USDA is no longer reporting crop ratings. 95% of the crop is dropping leaves vs. 96% YA and the 5-year Ave. of 92%. Harvest advanced 20% to 67% complete, vs. 57% YA and 5-year Ave. of 51%. Harvest is the fastest in 7 years. Brazil’s soybean exports are seen reaching 4.34 mmt in October, down from 6.1 mmt in Sept-24 and below the 5.6 mmt from Oct-23. As expected EU ambassadors agreed to delay the implementation of their deforestation law, EUDR, by 1 year. The European Parliament still needs to vote on the delay which will likely occur in November.
WHEAT
Prices were up $.04-$.06 across all 3 classes today. Dec-24 contracts for all 3 classes held just above their respective 50 day MA support levels. Some much needed rains are expected to fill in over the US Southern plains by the upcoming weekend. Eastern Ukraine and Southern Russia are also expecting modest relief from drought over the next week. US winter wheat plantings advanced 13% to 64% complete vs. 65% YA and the 5-year Ave. of 66%. Ukraine’s wheat exports for 2024/25 have reached 7.1 mmt. Russia’s union of grain exporters has set its “consensus indicator” for wheat export prices at $240/mt in October with it set to rise to $245/mt in Nov. and $250/mt by December. Only time will tell if these new parameters will be honored in future international tenders
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