Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans traded higher. Soymeal gained on soyoil. There could have been some liquidation of long corn and short soymeal and soybean spreads. November soybean deliveries are slowly being absorb by commercial stoppers. USDA did not announce any new soybean sales to buyers especially China. One private crop group estimated US soybean crop 50 mil bu higher. This and talk USDA could lower US exports could raise US 2021/22 soybean carryout closer to 400 mil bu. USDA estimated US soybean harvest near 79 pct vs 86 ly. US Midwest weather should be dry which should help advance harvest. The Chinese government told families to keep daily necessities in stock in case of emergencies, after COVID-19 outbreaks and unusually heavy rains that caused a surge in vegetable prices raised concerns about supply shortages. Matif and Canada rapeseed prices continue to make new highs. Dalian soybean futures traded higher while soymeal and soyoil traded lower.
CORN
Corn futures ended lower. There was some talk that recent managed fund buying especially in corn may begin to slow. Some of the fund buying was chart related and corn may be overbought. Funds may have also been moving money from financials and energies into grains and softs. Some fund corn buying was also linked to higher energy and fertilizer prices. EU inflation data and ammonia prices are highest in 13 years. One private crop group raised their estimate of US 2021 corn crop 100 mil bu. Informa will be out tomorrow morning with their latest update. Some feel USDA may not raise corn demand on Nov 9 which could be negative. Some farm advisors suggested today that US farmers increase 2021 crop cash sales and increase 2022 crop sales. CZ21 is higher than CZ22. There is a strong seasonal that CK22 contract tends to trade lower 11/8 through 12/7. There was talk of increase US corn farmer selling Monday. CZ had tested the highs from August 12 despite the fact US corn export commit is running 22 pct behind last year. USDA estimated that 74 pct of US corn crop was harvested vs 86 last year. Matif corn futures traded to new highs. Dalian corn futures also traded higher. Some feel increase tension between US and China may have slowed their buying of US corn.
WHEAT
Wheat futures closed mixed to lower. KC wheat futures are near 7 year highs, CBOT wheat near 9 year highs and Minneapolis wheat at 10 year highs. Over last few trading days, US domestic spring wheat basis has dropped as much as futures have rallied. This suggest recent rally may be more speculative led than cash led. Some farm advisors suggested today that US farmers increase 2021 crop cash sales, increase 2022 crop sales and begin to sell 2023 wheat crop sales. There was some talk that recent managed fund buying especially in wheat may begin to slow. Some of the fund buying was chart related and wheat may be overbought. Funds may have also been moving money from financials and energies into grains. US plains should be dry over the next 2 weeks. Russia is dry. US November Midwest weather should see above normal temps in west. Precip should be near normal. US December Midwest weather should see normal temps. Precip should be normal. USDA rated US 2022 winter wheat crop 45 pct G/E vs 46 last week.
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