Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was mixed with soybeans down $.07 – $.12, soybean meal steady to $1 higher while soybean oil was down 150 – 200. May-23 crush slipped $.13 to $1.88 bu. the lowest since July-22. Soybean meal product value surged to 63%, the highest since Feb-21. The weekly export report was weak with cancellations of 1 mil. bu. old crop and new crop sales of 6 mil. Old crop commitments at 1.790 bil. are down 7% from YA, in line with the revised USDA forecast. Soybean meal sales were strong at 319k tons. YTD commitments are down 7% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 1%. The USDA announced the sale of 184k tons (7 mil. bu.) of old crop soybeans to an unknown buyer. The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered their Argentine production forecast to 27 mmt, vs. the USDA’s current forecast of 33 mmt. The BAGE lowered their forecast to 29 mmt. Conab lowered their Brazilian forecast 1.5 mmt to 151.4 mmt. With the planting intentions report at the end of the month, prices sure seem to be trying to move some acres away from corn into soybeans.
CORN
Prices were down $.05 – $.15 today with nearby May-23 trading to its lowest level since Aug-22. It also fell below our downside target of $6.15. Export sales at 60 mil. bu. (56 mil. – 2022/23, 4 mil. – 2023/24) were well above expectations of 25 – 50 mil. Old crop commitments at 1.207 bil. are still down 39% from YA, vs. the revised USDA forecast of down 25%. There were no sales to China last week. Noted buyers were Japan – 19 mil. bu. and Korea – 15 mil. The BAGE lowered their corn production estimate to 37.5 mmt, vs. the USDA forecast of 40 mmt. The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered their forecast to 35 mmt. Conab raised their Brazilian corn production forecast by 1 mmt to 151.4 mmt vs. USDA 125.
WHEAT
Futures were sharply lower in all 3 classes finishing down $.18 – $.24. Spot Chicago futures have reached their lowest level since July-21 on the weekly chart. KC has reached its lowest level since Feb-22. Export sales at 13 mil. bu. (10 mil. – 2022/23 MY, 3 – 2023/24) were in line with expectations of 6 – 18 mil. YTD commitments at 639 mil. are down 6% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 3%. Russia continues to offer wheat below everyone else and the USDA still forecasts their old crop production at 92 mmt, below most estimates in the 100 – 105 mmt range. Saudi Arabia issued tender for 480k of wheat, likely be filled by Russia. More Ukrainian wheat is being sold to the EU as they have been otherwise unable to compete with Russian for African or Middle east imports.
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