Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures ended slightly higher. SK range was 15.11-15.33. SK ended up 2 cents and near 15.33. SK continues to find reason to trade between 14.75-15.75. Today, USDA dropped Argentina soybean crop 8 mmt to 33.0. They left the Brazil crop near a record 153 mmt. Bulls feel that the final Argentina crop could be below 30 mmt. This could drop Argentina crush and could increase demand for US soymeal. Key could China demand for soybeans and World buyers demand for soymeal. USDA estimated US 2022/23 soybean carryout at 210 mil bu versus 220 expected and 225. USDA raised US soybean exports but lowered crush. Managed funds were net buyers of 1,000 soybeans and 1,000 soyoil and sold 2,000 soymeal. Bulls feel that lower Argentina final crop could push SK higher and over 15.75 resistance. Global rapeseed oil and palmoil prices are trading lower due to lower energy prices, higher soybean crush for soymeal and concern about lower Asian demand. US Central Bank talk of higher rates could also slow global demand.
CORN
Corn futures ended sharply lower. CK range was 6.25-6.37 and ended near 6.25. Today, USDA dropped Argentina corn crop 7 mmt to 40.0. They left the Brazil crop near a record 125 mmt. Bulls feel that the final Argentina crop could be below 38 mmt. This could drop Argentina exports and could increase demand for US corn. USDA also left the Ukraine crop near 27 mmt. Some feel final Ukraine crop could drop to 16 mmt and leave little for new exports. Key could global demand for corn and USDA March 31 acreage and stocks report. USDA has now dropped World corn crop 69 mmt from last year but also lowered feed use 23 and exports 31. Net result is only a 9 mmt drop in end stocks. USDA estimated US 2022/23 corn carryout at 1,342 mil bu versus 1,308 expected and 1,267 previous. USDA dropped exports 75 mil bu. US PNW corn export price is lowest to China. Brazil and Argentina is out of the export market. Managed funds were net sellers of 6,000 corn.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended mixed to lower. Higher Russia supplies and lower export prices continue to weigh on futures. Matif wheat is near 13 month lows. USDA left Russia wheat crop at 92 mmt versus most est closer to 104. Russia est their end stocks closer to 30 mmt vs USDA 16. USDA raised Australia crop 1 mmt to 39. USDA estimates Ukraine wheat crop at 21 mmt vs 33 last year. There is word that sides are talking about Ukraine export corridor deal but not resolution yet. There remains 115 vessels waiting for inspection in Turkey. WK ended down 10 cents and near 6.87. KWK ended unch and near 7.99. MWK ended down 14 cents and near 8.38. Managed funds were net sellers of 4,000 Chicago wheat and are near a record short position. USDA left US wheat carryout unchanged at 568 mil bu. US Central Bank talk of higher rates could also slow US and global demand.
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