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Ag Market View for Mar 8.22

SOYBEANS

Volatility continues in the grains. Soybean futures had another wild ride today. SK ended near 16.88 with a range of 16.49 to 17.06. USDA March report tomorrow. Trade estimates US 2021/22 soybean carryout at 278 mil bu vs USDA 325. USDA announced 132 mt new crop US soybeans to China and 126 mt US old crop soybeans to unknown. Talk of Biden offering waivers for biofuel had weighed on soyoil futures. Matif and Canada rapeseed prices were sharply higher. US soybean exports are 22 pct lower than last year. Brazil soybean harvest near 50 pct. Brazil and Argentina rains should be stabilizing the crops. China Jan-Feb soybean exports were up 4 pct from last year. Season to date exports are down 7 pct from last year versus USDA estimate of down 3 pct.

CORN

Corn futures ended higher. CK ended near 7.53. Range was 7.28 to 7.60. There may have been some long liquidation before tomorrow’s USDA report. USDA March report tomorrow. Trade estimates US 2021/22 corn carryout at 1,479 mil bu vs USDA 1,540. Most are closer to 1,200 due to higher demand especially exports. Corn followed lower wheat trade today until the Russian rumor reversed trade corn may also be undervalued if US corn export demand increases due to lower South America crop and timing of resumption of Black Sea grain exports. There is talk of heavy Brazil corn sales but some feel the sales could be option origin. US commercials are looking for a big US summer corn export program.

WHEAT

Wheat futures ended lower but off limit down low. Some feel wheat futures were due for a correction given how fast and how high prices have rallied. USDA March report tomorrow. Trade estimates US 2021/22 wheat carryout at 628 mil bu vs USDA 648. Trade estimates World wheat end stocks near 277.6 vs USDA 278.2. USDA announced 193 mt US HRS wheat to Philippines.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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