Ag Market View for Mar 31
USDA acreage and stocks report was a bullish shocker. SK, CK and SMK traded up the daily limit. SK is near 14.37. SX is near 12.57. US Dollar was lower. Crude was lower. Gold was higher. USDA estimated US 2021 soybean acres near 87.6 million vs 90.0 expected and 83.1 last year. Some feel USDA may have not counted all the potential double crop acres. There was also talk that US 2021 Rice and cotton acres increase could drop soybeans. Most look for higher final acres but prices may need to continue to rally to buy acres. Assuming 2020/21 carryout is 120, range of 2021/22 carryout is 17 to -276. That assume a crop of 4,310 and demand near 4,535. USDA might increase 2020 and 2021 imports to try to show higher carryouts. USDA estimated March 1 soybean stocks near 1,564 mil bu vs 1,534 expected and 2,255 last year. Bulls are using carryout closer to 100 mil bu vs USDA 120. Bulls are back talking about 15.00 soybeans. US spring weather should be ok. Some look for summer dryness like 1988.
USDA acreage and stocks report was a bullish shocker. Trade was looking for a bearish stocks report and potential bullish corn acreage report. Stocks were in line with trade guess but bulls contend supplies will get tight before the next harvest. Some are using a 2020/21 corn carryout near 1,200 vs USDA 1,502. Assuming a crop near 14,500 mil bu and demand near 15,100 range of US 2021/22 carryout would be 800-1,200. Trade may now need to rally to buy more acres. Some feel USDA may not have counted last year 9.0 million corn acres that were prevent plant. Some of those acres could come into corn. USDA also est US 2021 sorghum acres near 6.9 vs 6.8 expected and 5.9 last year. USDA est of corn stocks near 7,701 vs 7,767 expected and 7,952 last year. This suggest stocks could get tight before the next harvest. Some feel final exports and feed us could increase from USDA guess and ethanol production could also Increase once more Americans are vaccinated. Weekly US Ethanol production was up from last week and last year. Stocks were lower than last week and last year. Stocks were lower than expected. Trade est weekly US corn export sales near 600-1,200 mt versus 4,481 last week. Bulls now back talking 6.00 CK. Synthetic CK was trading near 5.78.
Wheat is wheat. Shocking bullish USDA corn report supported wheat futures. This week World wheat prices dropped on improved US weather and lower World trade. USDA wheat acres at 46.3 million was up from trade guess of 45.0 and 44.3 last year. Winter wheat acres were near 33.0 vs 31.8 expected and 30.4 last year. Spring Wheat acres near 11.7 versus 11.6 expected and 12.2 last year. Some feel higher corn and soybean prices could drop spring wheat acres from today’s USDA guess. USDA wheat March 1 Stocks were near 1,314 mil bu vs 1,272 expected and 1,415 last year. Wheat prices should follow corn. This week USDA raised US SRW and KS crop ratings but lowered OK and TX. Next Monday, USDA will begin to publish weekly crop ratings. Annual winter wheat crop tour will be live this year and May 18-20.
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