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Ag Market View for Mar 28.23


The soybean complex was higher across the board with beans up $.15 – $.25, soybean meal up $6 – $12, and soybean oil up 30 – 50.  Conab estimates Brazil’s harvest at 69% complete, vs. 76% YA.  Harvest in the far southern state of RGDS at only 5% vs. 14% YA.  Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his SA production estimates unchanged at 151 mmt for Brazil and 26 mmt for Argentina.  Next resistance for May-23 soybeans is $14.77 ½, the midpoint between the Feb-23 high and last week’s liquidation break.  Hard to imagine prices surging much higher unless Brazilian basis improves.  Prices at the US gulf are still $60 – $65 / mt above Brazil.  That said however, wait times to load out barges at the port of Paranagua are approaching 1 month.  Brazilian exports are expected to reach 15.2 mmt in March, the 2nd highest monthly total ever recorded.  Spot board crush margins rebounded another $.06 to $1.45 bu.  Louisiana is reporting planting progress at 5%.  Historically daily price moves of more than 4% are quite rare for soybeans the day of the March Quarterly Stocks and acreage report.  Since 2000 there have been only 3 occurrences.  2 were higher, in 2021 and 2009, once was lower in 2008.


Futures were mixed with old crop steady to $.01 lower, while new crop was up $.02 – $.03.  South American weather has stabilized following recent rains in Argentina.  Harvest has begun and will look to pick up steam in April.  Drier conditions in Central Brazil should enable soybean harvest to hit the home stretch while 2nd crop corn planting are  essentially complete.  The USDA announced the sale of 136k tons (5 mil. bu.) of old crop corn to China.  This after 113k tons sold to unknown yesterday.  Since the large sales 2 weeks ago, China has been a small steady buyer ever since.  China has also been an active buyers of much greater quantity of Brazilian corn for July-Sept shipment.  May-23 has made a new high for the recent move up to $6.51 ¼.  Next resistance at the 50 day MA, currently $6.56, followed by the 100 day MA, currently $6.59 ¼.  Moves of more than 4% have been much more common in corn than soybeans surrounding the March Stocks/acreage reports.  9 times since 2000, 4 were higher, with 5 lower.  Conab est. 2nd corn plantings have reached 91%, vs. 98% YA.  Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his SA production estimate unchanged at 121 mmt for Brazil and 36 mmt for Argentina. US states reporting corn plantings vs. their 5-year Ave. as follows: LA – 95% vs. 59%, TX – 52% vs. 45%, MS – 14% vs. 17%, and AR – 2% vs. 6%.

market analysis


Prices closed higher in all 3 classes led by KC and MGEX, both up $.09 – $.12.  Chicago finished $.02 – $.03 better.  May-23 KC closed above its 100 day MA for the 1st time in over a month.  It has also surged to a new high, $1.74 ½ inverse over Chicago.  Turkey TMO reportedly purchased 695k tons of 12% pro wheat oddly enough, all from the Ukraine and all for delivery after mid-May, beyond the 60 day extension of the BSGI.  Prices ranged from $293 – $309/mt CF for the first 360k for delivery mid-May thru mid-June.   The 2nd delivery period is mid-June thru mid-July, $282 – $295/mt CF for 335k.  China announced plans to auction off 900k mt of wheat from state reserves on April 4th.  US Southern plains continue to miss out on rain events as the drought deepens in far western Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas panhandle.  Winter wheat conditions in KS held steady at 19% G/E, however Poor/VP increased 2% to 52%.  Weekly ratings showed OK G/E were up 5%, down 5% in TX, and down 8% in CO.  Monthly ratings showed MT up 10% in G/E, up 3% in NE, and down 1% in SD

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