Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans and soyoil, traded lower. Soymeal traded higher. US stocks were mixed. US Dollar was higher. Crude was sharply lower. Some link the selloff to lower weekly US soybean sales and month end and quarter end liquidation. Some feel next key input will be USDA March 31 report. Trade looks for US March 1 soybean stocks near 1,537 mil bu. Range Is 1,440-1,825. Last year stocks were 2,255. Trade also looks for US 2021 soybean acres near 90.1 million vs 83.1 last year. Range is 88.9-91.3. Weekly US soybean exports were 3 mil bu. Total commit is near 2,231 mil bu vs 1,313 last year. USDA goal is 2,250 vs 1,682 last year. China commit is near 1,317 mil bu, Some feel final exports could be near 2,275 and final US 2020/21 carryout below USDA 120 mil bu. Cash market remain firm suggesting tight supplies.
CORN
Corn futures traded lower. Weaker commodity prices and higher Dollar may have triggered some month end and quarter end liquidation. Weekly US corn export sales were the 3rd highest on record. Still market sold off on buy the rumor sell the fact. US spring weather looks favorable for early planting which is negative to prices. Cash market remain firm suggesting tight supplies. Weekly US corn exports were 176 mil bu. Total commit is near 2,558 mil bu vs 1,213 last year. USDA goal is 2,600 vs 1,778 last year. China commit is near 913 mil bu. Some feel final exports could be near 2,800 and final US 2020/21 carryout below 1,000 mil bu. Some feel next key input will be USDA March 31 report. Trade looks for US March 1 corn stocks near 7,750 mil bu. Range is 7,073-7,980. Last year stocks were 7,980. Trade also looks for US 2021 corn acres near 93.1 million vs 90.8 last year. Range is 92.0-94.5. International Grain Council estimated World 2021/22 Corn crop near 1,193 mmt vs 1,139 this past year. US is 384 mmt vs 360 this past year.
WHEAT
Wheat futures traded lower. Favorable US winter wheat crop weather and lower World wheat prices continues to offer resistance. Lower commodity prices and higher Dollar may have also triggered month end and quarter end liquidation. US spring weather looks favorable for early US WW crop which is negative to prices. Weekly US wheat export sales were near expectations. Dryness in US HRS region could be a concern. Weekly US wheat exports were 12 mil bu. Total commit is near 913 mil bu vs 908 last year. USDA goal is 985 vs 965 last year. Some feel lower wheat prices could increase US HRW feeding to near 120 mil bu vs USDA guess of 35. Some feel next key input will be USDA March 31 report. Trade looks for US March 1 wheat stocks near 1,271 mil bu. Range is 1,227-1,405. Last year stocks were 1,415. Trade also looks for US 2021 all wheat acres near 44.9 million vs 44.3 last year. Range is 43.0-46.4. International Grain Council est World 2021/22 wheat crop near 790 mmt vs 747 this past year. Russia is 76.9 mmt vs 85.4 last year. France is 37.4 vs 30.4 and Argentina is 20.7 vs 17.3 ly.
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