Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans and soyoil ended lower. Soymeal ended higher. After 6 days of higher lows the soybean market finally took some profits. Slow weekly US soybean export sales and increase Brazil soybean export sales may have triggered some long liquidation before next weeks USDA acreage and stocks report. During that time, soybean open interest increased 20,000 contracts. Managed funds have bought 32,000 soybean contracts during those 6 days. SK support is 16.70. SK was unable to close over 17.35. USDA announced 318.2 mt US 2021/22 soybeans sold to unknown. Some feel China needs to buy 5-6 mmt April-May soybeans and 28-30 mmt June-Sep. Of the total, 14-15 mmt is Aug-Sep when Brazil supplies may be limited and US carryout is near 285 mil bu. Weekly US soybean export sales were only 15 mil bu. Total commit is near 1,985 mil bu vs 2,228 last year (-243). USDA goal is 2,090 vs 2,261 ly (-171). China soybean export commit is near 27.7 mmt, There is 4.1 in unknown. China 2022/23 commit is near 5.6 mmt. Total commit is a record 8.1 mmt.
CORN
Corn futures ended lower. After 5 days of higher lows the corn market finally took some profits. Slower weekly US corn export sales and increase Brazil corn export sales may have triggered some long liquidation before next weeks USDA acreage and stocks report. During that time, corn open interest increased 73,000 contracts. Managed funds have bought 28,000 corn contracts during those 5 days. CK support is 7.40. SK was unable to close over 7.65. US weekly corn export sales were 38 mil. Total commit is near 2,087 mil bu vs 2,556 last year (-469). USDA goal is 2,500 vs 2,753 last year (-253). Trade still feels that final exports could be closer to 2,800. USDA March 31 stocks and acreage report is next week and could be triggering long liquidation and limiting new buying. Trade looks for corn acres near 92.0 vs 93.4 ly and stocks near 7,865 vs 7,696 ly. Key could be pct on farm vs normal. Mexico commit is 14/6 mmt, China 12.2, Canada 3.5 and 3.5 in unknown. Trade still looking to see if China buys US corn to replace 6 mmt bought from Ukraine and if EU buys US corn due to reduce Ukraine exports. US diesel fuel prices near $5.00 is increasing cost of moving grains domestically. Truck fuel cost is near $1.00 per mile. This has increase rail demand. Cars cost are $2.500-3,000 with one rail company charging $6,500. Fall barge freight is record high.
WHEAT
Wheat traded lower. Low weekly US export sales and increase Russia wheat exports has triggered long liquidation. Some Chicago and KC May longs have rolled to Dec as nearby fundamentals are not as bullish and due to fear Ukraine war could continue. WK ended near 10.85. Range was 10.80-11.15. KWK ended near 10.92. Range was 10.90-11.21. MWK ended near 10.82. Range was 10.76-10.97. US weekly wheat export sales were only 5 mil bu. Total commit is near 694 mil bu vs 913 last year (-219). USDA goal is 800 vs 992 last year (-192). USDA March 31 stocks and acreage report is next week. Trade looks for wheat acres near 48.4 vs 46.7 ly and stocks near 1,019 vs 1.311 last year. Since March 17 to March 22, WK open interest is up 20,000 contract. Managed funds were net buyers of 15,000 contract. Since March 22, Funds have sold 14,000 contracts and WK has dropped below the 20 day moving average near 11.03. WK remains in a 10.50-11.50 range. There are 2 rain events across US south plains over next 10 days. American model suggest good rains and good coverage. EU model is drier.
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