Ag Market View for Mar 20.23
The soybean complex closed mixed. Beans were $.05 – $.10 higher in old crop, while new crop futures were down $.02 – $.04. Soybean meal was down $2 – $3 with soybean oil up 20 – 50. After trading down to its lowest level in 3 ½ months, May-23 soybeans rebounded to challenge resistance at its 100 day MA at $14.88 ¾. Export inspections at 26 mil. bu. were above expectations and well above the 17 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the USDA export forecast. YTD inspections are up 3% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 7%. Chinese soybean imports in Jan-Feb reached 16.2 mmt, of which 11.6 mmt were from the US. Brazil’s soybean harvest estimates are coming in near 60% complete. Brazil’s Energy Policy Council increased the mandatory biodiesel blend rate to 12% in April, with the level increasing 1% per year until reaching 15% in 2026. Ukraine’s Ag-Ministry expects 2023 oilseed production will rise 5.5% in 2023 to 19.2 mmt. This will include 11.5 mmt of sunflower seed, 3.9 mmt of soybeans and 3.8 mmt of rapeseed.
Prices closed $.01 – $.02 lower. No new export announcement this AM. Export inspections at 47 mil. bu. were at the high end of expectations. YTD inspections at 690 mil. bu. are still down 36% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 25%. Chinese Jan-Feb corn imports totaled 5.33 mmt, with US being the top supplier with 2.35 mmt, up 22% from YA. Cattle on feed as of Mch 1st were 96% of YA, in line with expectations. Ukraine’s Ag-Ministry is forecast total grain output in 2023 will drop 16.5% to 44.3 mmt. Corn production is forecast at 21.7 mmt, down from the USDA forecast of 27 mmt in 2022 and well below the 42 mmt harvested in 2021. Total planted area is expected to drop 12% to 10.2 mil. acres. Texas corn plantings advanced to 40% last week, same as YA and above the 5-year ave. of 35%.
Prices were lower across all 3 classes led by declines in Chicago which closed $.10 – $13 lower. MGEX was down $.09 – $.10 while KC was down $.06 – $.08. Export inspections at 14 mil. bu. were in line with expectations. YTD inspections at 598 mil. bu. are down 2% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 3%. IKAR noted Russian 12.5% protein wheat for export ended last week at $277/mt down $13 from the previous week. SovEcon estimates Russian exports in the week ended Mch. 15th slipped to 750k mt, down from 1.0 mmt the previous week. Ukraine’s Ag Minister expects 2023 wheat production to reach only 16.6 mmt, down from the 2022 USDA est. of 21 mmt and well below the 33 mmt harvested in 2022. Barley production is expected to drop to 4.8 mmt, down from 6.1 mmt in 2022 and 9.9 mmt in 2021.
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