Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans ended lower. May soybeans are near 16.58. Range has been 16.38-16.74. Dalian soybean and soymeal futures were higher. Soyoil was lower. Malaysian palmoil futures dropped on concern over lower China demand. Trade in wide 16.00-17.00 range until more is known about China import needs and US 2022 crop size. USDA estimates US 2021/22 soybean crush near 2,215 mil bu vs 2,141 last year. USDA estimates exports at 2,090 mil bu vs 2,261 last year. US exports to date is down 21 pct. Most look for US 2022 soybean acres near 88.0 vs 87.2 ly, yield 51.5 total demand near 4,580 and carryout 125. Some could see demand as high as 4,720 and carryout only 75. Expect volatile trade until more is known about US 2022 supply and global soybean demand.
CORN
Corn futures ended mixed. Nearby CK ended near 7.58. Talk of higher demand for US corn exports helped CK rally and offset lower Crude oil prices. CN ended near 7.23. CU ended near 6.70. CZ ended near 6.51. CZ rejected 6.58 contract highs. Some tech watchers feel that corn, like crude oil, may have made a key top last week. USDA estimates US 2021/22 feed use near 5,650 mil bu vs 5.598 last year. USDA estimates exports at 2,500 mil bu vs 2,753 last year. US exports to date are down 14 pct. USDA estimates US ethanol use near 5.350 mil bu vs 5,033 last year. Most look for US 2022 corn acres near 92.0 vs 93.4 ly, yield a record 181.0, total demand near 15,140 and carryout 1,400. Some could see demand as high as 15,235 and carryout only 805. Expect volatile trade until more is known about US 2022 supply and global corn demand. Trade still concerned about if Ukraine can export 550 mil bu of corn this marketing year. Some crop watchers estimate Argentina corn crop near 49.0 mmt vs USDA 53.0. Rains in central Brazil could keep their crop near 112.0 mmt. Still Brazil domestic corn price is near a record $8.66 which suggest harvest corn may go domestically first before export. The second Brazil crop will not be available until July. Dalian corn is near $11.46.
WHEAT
Wheat futures jumped higher on light volume and lack of follow through selling. Fact USDA lowered KS, TX and CO crop ratings offered support. Lack of a ceasefire in Ukraine also supported prices. Some weather forecasters also reduced US south plains rainfall over the next 10 days. World Weather still sees less rain long term across most of the US south plains starting mid April. WK ended near11.54 with a range of 10.88-11.60. KWK ended near 11.61 with a range of 10.90-11.64. MWK ended near 11.10 with a range of 10.59-11.16. USDA est US 2021/22 food use near 959 mil bu vs 961 last year. USDA estimates exports at 800 mil bu vs 992 last year. Most look for US 2022 wheat acres near 48.0 vs 46.7 ly, yield a 49.1, total demand near 2,010 and carryout 740. Some could see demand as high as 2,070 and carryout only 515. Some feel combined EU, Russia, Ukraine mid Feb wheat exports near 16.5 mmt vs USDA estimate of 29.5.
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