Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybean traded higher. Talk of lower Argentina supply and higher US domestic soybean basis offset lower China crush margins and soymeal prices and talk of higher Brazil crop. Some feel that there is good US domestic soymeal demand at current prices. Higher palmoil prices and talk of higher US demand for soyoil biodiesel helps soyoil futures. Weekly US soybean sales were near 350 mt. Total commit is near 60.4 mmt vs 34.2 ly. USDA goal is 61.2 vs 45.7 ly. China commit is near 35.8 mmt with 2.2 in unknown. Conab est Brazil soybean crop at 135.1 mmt vs 133.8 previous and USDA 134. Trade survey est the crop closer to 131.7. Some est Argentina soybean crop near 44 mmt vs USDA 47.5. USDA est World soybean trade near 169.6 mmt vs 165.0 ly. Brazil 85.0 vs 92.1 US 61.2 vs 45.7.
CORN
Corn traded higher. Higher US domestic basis and talk of lower Argentina crop offered support and offset talk of lower China corn import demand and higher Brazil crop. Dalian corn futures dropped 11 cents to near 10.67. USDA estimates US 2020/21 corn carryout at 1,502 mil bu. Most private estimates are near 1,100 mil bu. Difference is exports. Weekly US corn sales were near 395 mt. Total commit is near 59.5 mmt vs 28.1 ly. USDA goal is 66.0 vs 45.1 ly. China commit is near 18.7 mmt with 5.6 in unknown. C IL corn basis jumped 14 cents. Consumer demand remains strong for US corn. Conab est Brazil corn crop at 108.0 mmt vs 105.5 previous and USDA 109. Trade survey est the crop closer to 105. Some est Argentina corn crop near 44 mmt vs USDA 47.5. USDA est World corn trade near 186.5 mmt vs 171.6 last year. US 66.0, Brazil 39 vs 39 last year, Argentina 34 vs 36 and Ukraine 24 vs 29. China by the end 2021 will kill close to 1.930,000 hogs/day growth expected at 12.5 pct, EU about 950,000/ day growth in 2021 expected at .5% and US about 501,000/ day growth expected at 3.2%. Demand for corn should remain strong.
WHEAT
Wheat traded lower. Concern about demand for US wheat exports and talk of good rains across the US HRW wheat areas weighed on prices. Market is also seeing net selling after USDA failed to lower EU and Russia wheat exports on their March report. Egypt bought Romanian wheat in their tender. US export prices are not competitive to N Africa and Mideast buyers. Matif and Black Sea wheat futures traded lower. USDA estimates US 2020/21 wheat carryout at 836 mil bu. Most private groups est US 2021 wheat crop near 1,832 mil bu and 2021/22 carryout near 705. Weekly US wheat sales were near 329 mt. Total commit is near 24.1 mmt vs 23.6 ly. USDA goal is 26.8 vs 26.3 ly. US prices are not competitive for N Africa or Mideast buyers. Consumer demand remains strong for US bakers. USDA est World wheat trade near 197.6 mmt vs 190.4 ly. Russia 39 vs 34, EU 27 vs 38 and Austrália 22 vs 9. WK traded below 6.40 support. Next support 6.20.
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