Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures may be adding an US weather premium. Starting Monday, US Midwest 14 day weather forecast is warm and dry. One crop watcher dropped US yield 1.0 to 50.5. Maps suggest ridge moves west the 3rd week. Trade expects no August soybean and soymeal deliveries. SQ is tested 16.21. SU traded over 14.50. Next resistance is near 14.78. Weekly US old crop soybean export sales dropped 2 mil bu. Total commit is near 2,187 vs 2,274 ly. USDA goal is 2,170 vs 2,261 ly. New crop sales rose 27 mil bu. Unshipped open sales are a record 545 mil bu.
Some feel todays call between Biden and XI did not go well. There appeared to be no talk about US lifting tariffs but China may have warned US about supporting Taiwan. China may be trying to but their soybean needs from South America versus US. This puts additional importance on South America 2023 crop. US crushers continue to see higher margins.
CORN
Corn futures ended higher. Corn futures may be adding an US weather premium. Starting Monday, US Midwest 14 day weather forecast is warm and dry. Maps suggest ridge moves west the 3rd week. One crop watcher dropped US yield 3.5 bpa to 173.5 EU weather is warm and dry. Some estimate EU corn crop closer to 54 mmt than USDA 68. CU is traded over the 20 day moving average near 6.02. Next key resistance is near 6.34. Weekly US corn export sales was near 6 mil bu. Total commit is near 2,385 vs 2,742 ly. USDA goal is 2,450 vs 2,753 ly. UN said that the first shipment of grain from a Ukrainian Black Sea port could take place as early as Friday, but “crucial” details for the safe passage of vessels were still being worked out. Ukrainian farmers union said farmers have harvested 11.8 mmt of 2022 grain harvest so far. The volume included 8 mmt of wheat and 3.5 mmt of barley. Ukraine harvested a record 86 mmt of grain in 2021. The government said this year’s harvest could fall to about 50 mmt of grain and oilseeds. Some feel union hopes farmers will harvest their crop or go bankrupt. CU finally traded over 20 day moving average near 6.02. Some feel todays call between Biden and XI did not go well. There appeared to be no talk about US lifting tariffs but China may have warned US about supporting Taiwan. Covid lockdown may be slowing China economy and food demand. This could be slowing grain imports. China, EU and US Midwest could see above normal temps over the next 14 days.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended higher. WU is near 8.17. KWU is near 8.89. MWU is near 9.28. There remains uncertainty over just how much grain Ukraine will export over the next few months. World needs Ukraine grain to help with shortages especially Africa and Middle East. The average spring wheat yield in North Dakota was estimated at 49.1 bpa on Thursday by the annual Wheat Quality Council tour as good weather and adequate moisture boosted harvest prospects. The figure was above the crop tour’s five-year average of 39.4 bpa and its highest since 2015, but short of the USDA estimate of a record 51.0 bpa. Weekly US wheat export sales were 15 mil bu. Total commit is near 293 mil b u vs 297 ly. USDA goal is 800 vs 804 ly. UN said that the first shipment of grain from a Ukrainian Black Sea port could take place as early as Friday, but “crucial” details for the safe passage of vessels were still being worked out. Ukrainian farmers union said have harvested 11.8 mmt of 2022 grain harvest so far. The volume included 8 mmt of wheat and 3.5 mmt of barley. Ukraine harvested a record 86 mmt of grain in 2021. The government said this year’s harvest could fall to about 50 mmt of grain and oilseeds.
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