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Ag Market View for Jan 3.25

CORN

Price were $.08-$.09 lower while spreads were mixed.  Spot Mch-25 is currently resting near the lows for the day just above the $4.50 level.  Export sales at 31 mil. bu. were at the low end of expectations.  YTD commitments have reached 1.528 bil. up 30% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 8%.  Current commitments represent 62% of the USDA forecast, above the historical average of 56%.  Shipments are up 27%.  Noted buyers were Mexico – 12 mil., Japan – 7 mil. and Colombia with 6 mil.  There were 4 mil. in cancellations to unknown.  After raising their export forecast 150 mil. bu. in Dec-24, I see no change this month from the current 2.475 bil. bu. forecast.  The BAGE indicates both the Argentine corn and soybean crops are starting to show signs of stress from recent heat and dryness.  Corn plantings have reached 87% of the intended 6.6 mil. HA.  Since 1990 there has been a historical tendency for US corn production to decline from the November est. to final.  65% of the time final production was lower, while 35% of the time the crop increased.  

QST corn futures chart on 1.3.25

SOYBEANS

Prices are sharply lower across the complex with beans down $.18-$.21, meal was $11 lower, while oil off 30-35.  Mch-25 soybeans broke back below the 50 day MA and $10 level.  Next support is this week’s low at $9.86 ¾.  Mch-25 oil held support above the Dec-24 low at 39.50 setting up a late day recovery.  Mch-25 meal sliced thru its 100 day MA support, next support at the 50 day MA just above $300.  Nearly all the private Brazilian production forecasts are trending above 170 mmt, vs. the USDA in Dec-24 at 169 mmt.  Using the USDA acreage est., matching record yields would leave Brazilian production at just shy of 175 mmt.  Soybean exports at 18 mil. bu. were also at the low end of expectations.  YTD commitments are up 11% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 8%.  There were net cancellations of 2 mil. bu. to China/unknown.  Combined commitments stand at 879 mil. with 590 mil. so far shipped to China, leaving outstanding sales at 289 mil., below the 380 mil. from YA and 449 mil. in 2023.  I expect no change in the USDA export forecast of 1.825 bil. however leaning lower.  Meal sales at 204k tons in line with expectations.  YTD commitments are up 16% from YA, vs. USDA up 8%.  Bean oil sales at 38k mt (84 mil. lbs.) were above expectations.  YTD commitments at 1.245 bil. lbs. are already above the USDA forecast of 1.10 bil for 24/25.  Look for another significant upward revision from the USDA next week.  Clearly the pace to exports is unsustainable.  Palm oil rebounded nearly 1% overnight as Indonesia stated it will need roughly 2 months to implement the 5% increase in diesel blend to B40.  The BAGE suggest soybean acres with optical levels of moisture fell to 81% from 88% the previous week.  They also stated soybean plantings have reached 93% complete.  Since 1990 there has been no historical tendency for soybean production to rise or fall from November forecast.  In those 34 years 17 times production rose, while also falling 17 times.

WHEAT

Prices were sharply lower across all 3 classes led by Chicago down $.14-$.16, while MGEX and KC were $.11-$.13 lower.  Both Chicago and MGEX carved out new contract lows.  Chicago Mch-25 premium to Mch-25 corn has fallen to a new low at $.77 per bu.  A winter storm is expected to bring several inches of snow from the eastern plains thru southern portions of the Midwest this weekend into early next week.  Little moisture is expected for the NC Midwest along with the SW plains.  Limited precipitation for E. Ukraine, S. Russia and W. Kazakhstan over the next few weeks.  Exports at only 5 mil. bu. were below expectations.  YTD sales at 621 mil. bu. are up 11% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 20%.  Commitments represent 73% of the USDA forecast vs. the historical average of 75%.  I see no change to the current export forecast of 850 mil. bu.  With the Russian ruble falling to a record low against the US $$$, Russia will likely expand small grain production in 2025.  The BAGE reports wheat harvest has advanced to 95% complete while leaving their production forecast unchanged at 18.6 mmt, vs. the USDA forecast of 17.5 mmt.

QST wheat futures chart 1.3.25

Charts provided by The Hightower Report.

 

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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