Ag Market View for Jan 27
Soybeans, soyoil and corn traded marginally higher. Wheat traded lower. Soymeal was unchanged. Drop in financial markets and higher US Dollar offered resistance to grains. US stocks were under pressure on concern slow rollout of vaccine could slow economic recovery.
Soybean closed higher but off session highs. Talk of increase demand for US soybean offered support. SH ended near 13.73. High was near 13.94. Some feel delay in Brazil soybean harvest could shift soybean export demand to US. Brazil truckers strike Could also slow loadings. This could tighten US balance sheet. Bulls feel SH may need to trade over 15.00 to ration demand. USDA announced 132 mt US soybeans to China and 126.5 mt US soybean to unknown. Some estimate that China could import 102-103 mmt soybean versus USDA 100 guess. Same source could see China 2021/22 imports near 110 mmt. Weekly US soybean export sales are estimated near 800-1,400 mt versus 1,817 last week. New crop sales are estimated near 250-550 mt versus 831 last week. Weekly US soymeal sales are estimated near 150-400 mt versus 468 Last week. Some US soybean crushers are increasing bids to buy soybean to satisfy future soymeal sales.
Corn futures edged higher and settled off session highs. CH made new highs near 5.43 on news that China had bought additional US corn. USDA announced 680 mt US corn to China. Some feel China could buy additional 4 mmt US corn. Some now estimate China corn import demand near a record 25 mmt. Some estimates are as high as 40 mmt. USDA China Ag Attaché estimates imports near 22 mmt versus USDA latest guess of 17.5. Weekly US corn export sales are estimated near 900-1,600 mt versus 1,437 last week. Total export commit is well ahead of average for this time of the year and could suggest final exports 250-300 mil bu higher than USDA latest guess. This could drop US 2020/21 carryout Closer to 1,100 mil bu versus USDA 1,552. Weekly US ethanol production was down from last week and last year. Stocks were near last week and down from last year. Margins remain negative. Some US elevators are selling inventories to processors to reduce hedge risk if futures trade higher. There is even talk of some elevators reaching out to China to sell corn supplies.
Wheat futures traded lower. Steep drop in US stocks and higher US Dollar may have weighed on wheat. Wheat followed higher corn prices early in session but dropped along with corn and when US stocks traded lower. Stocks may have been lower due to concern That slow rollout of vaccine could delay US economic recovery. I am on a list but there is no vaccine available yet. WH settled near 6.58. Range was 6.52-6.72. KWH settled near 6.36. Range was 6.30-6.48. Concern over final Russia wheat exports and drier than normal 2020 US and Russia summer offers support. Lack of new US sales and slowdown in World trade offers equal resistance. Weekly US wheat export sales are estimated near 250-600 mt versus 330 last week. US Fed suggested today that pace of US economic recovery is moderating. Experts also warned of investment money flowing out of US assets and more to foreign especially Asia. This week USDA lowered US HRW crop ratings but raised SRW.
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