Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans traded lower. March soybeans may be trying to correct from an overbought tech picture. SH has also filled the gap from Mondays higher trade. Dalian soyoil and palmoil prices were sharply lower on talk of more Indonesia palmoil exports than expected. This may be weighing on soyoil futures. Lower Crude oil trade may also be weighing on soyoil. USDA announced 132 mt US 2022/23 soybeans to China and 332 mt US 2022/23 soybeans to unknown. USDA report tomorrow. Trade estimates US 2021/22 soybean carryout near 310 vs USDA 350, Brazil soybean crop 133.6 vs USDA 139.0, Argentina soybean crop 44.5 vs USDA 46.5.
CORN
Corn closed lower. There may have been some long liquidation before tomorrow USDA report. Lower than expected Dec 31 Canada wheat stocks may have also triggered some long corn short wheat spreads. Corn bulls may have run out of new bullish news before the USDA February crop report and Conab’s South America crop update. The noon SA weather maps showed increase chances for rain across the dry areas of S Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay. The maps may be too wet. Lower energy prices may be weighing on corn. CH failed to trade over Mondays high. CH has had an inside day. The gap from Mondays higher trade is near 6.23. Trade estimates US 2021/22 corn carryout at 1,512 mil bu vs USDA 1,540. This may not satisfy the bulls. Most private estimates are closer to 1,200. Trade also estimates Brazil soybean crop at 133.6 mmt vs USDA 139.0, Argentina soybean crop at 44.5 mmt vs USDA 46.5. Most looking for confirmation of lower SA corn crop and higher US corn export demand. Some also are afraid to add to positions given uncertainty over potential war in Ukraine and stoppage of Black Sea corn exports especially Ukraine corn.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended higher led by Minneapolis spring wheat. Wheat futures trade remains choppy depending upon whatever the headline is. Today, fact Stats Canada estimated Canada Dec 31 wheat stocks at 15.5 mmt vs 17.3 expected and 24.0 last year rallied MWH from 9.09 to 9.41. Since the July, 2021 low near 6.00 KWH has had 4 peaks and 4 valleys. Recent range has been 7.50-8.50. Some are afraid of the uncertainty over will Russia invade Ukraine or not. Some feel Russia may not invade until after the China winter Olympics or if West agrees not to let Ukraine in NATO. Noon maps reduced rains forecasted for US south plains. Trade estimates US 2021/22 wheat carryout at 629 mil bu vs USDA 628. Some private estimates are closer to 700 due to lower exports. Bulls hope USDA lowers World supplies and raise export trade which would lower World stocks. US south plains and N Africa weather remains dry.
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