Ag Market View for Feb 18
Soybean traded lower. SK traded below Wednesday low. Next support is the 20 day moving average near 13.66. Talk of slower US soybean export pace offered resistance. There were even rumors that some China buyers may soon cancel some open US unshipped soybean sales. Guesses for this weeks US soybean export sales is 300-900 mt versus 804 last week. New crop soybean sales could be near 50-300 versus 178 last week. Weekly US soymeal sales could be 100-350 mt versus 263 last week. There is some new concern about a drier south Brazil and Argentina 2 week weather forecast. Rains in north Brazil could slow soybean harvest there. USDA Chief Economist estimated US 2021 soybean acres at 90.8 versus 89.5 expected and 83.1 last year. USDA est US 2021/22 on farm soybean prices near 11.25 versus 11.15 this year. On Friday, USDA will issue new US 2021/22 supply and demands. Trade expects the 2021 US soybean crop at 4,520 and 2021/22 soybean carryout at 179 vs 120 this year.
Corn futures traded lower. CK range was 5.46-5.52. Next support is Wednesdays low near 5.44 then the 20 day moving average near 5.40. Frigid cold weather is slowing cash movement and reducing commercial buying. USDA Chief Economist estimated US 2021 corn acres at 92.0 million versus 92.9 million expected and 90.8 last year. USDA est US 2021/22 on farm corn prices near 4.20 versus 4.30 this year. On Friday, USDA will issue new US 2021/22 supply and demands. Trade expects the 2021 US corn crop near 15,243 mil bu and US 2021/22 corn carryout near 1,725 mil bu versus 1,502 this year. Guesses for this weeks US corn export sales is 800-1,200 mt versus 1,440 last week. Weekly ethanol production was down from last week and last year. Stocks were up from last week but down from last year. Margins remain negative. There is some new concern about a drier south Brazil and Argentina 2 week weather forecast. Rains in north Brazil could slow corn plantings there. NOAA US 30 day and 90 day weather forecast calls for normal above temps from much of the US. Rainfall is below normal across the southwest with above normal rains in the Great Lakes.
Wheat futures traded higher. WK gained back all of Wednesdays losses and managed to trade over Wednesdays high. WK held 20 day moving average level near 6.51. Wheat rallied on talk that recent US frigged temps may have hurt the US HRW crop. 14 pct of the US wheat acres are in Texas and last week 13 pct of the crop was heading. That crop is gone. Next week south plains should warm. This should give the market a better look at any damage. Problem is that long range weather maps suggest could temps could return to the plains the second week in March. NOAA US 30 day and 90 day weather forecast calls for normal above temps from much of the US. Rainfall is below normal across the southwest with above normal rains in the Great Lakes. USDA Chief Economist estimated US 2021 wheat acres at 45.0 versus 45.3 expected and 44.3 last year. USDA est US 2021/22 on farm wheat prices at 5.50 versus 5.00 this year. On Friday, USDA will issue new US 2021/22 supply and demands. Trade expects the 2021 US wheat crop at 1,874 and US 2021/22 wheat carryout near769 mil bu vs 836 this year.
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