Ag Market View for Feb 14.23
The soybean complex closed mixed with soybeans steady to $.06 higher, soybean meal was up $4 – $6, while soybean oil is down 30 – 40. Mch-23 soybeans traded above its Jan high of $15.48 ½, only to pull back following no confirmation of last Friday’s rumored soybean sale to China. All the old crop soybean meal contracts made new contract highs with spot Mch-23 closing above $500 per ton for the 1st time. AgRural reports Brazilian soybean harvest has reached 17%, behind the YA pace of 24%. Export inspections at 57 mil. bu. were at the high end of the range of estimates of 40 – 60 mil. YTD inspections at 1.453 bil. are up 2% vs. the USDA forecast of down 8%. 37 mil. bu. were destined for China. US NOPA crush is out on Wed. at 11 AM CST. Spot board crush margins improved $.05 ½ today, closing at $2.27 ½. While both soybeans and meal appear overvalued with Mch-23 over $15.25 and $500 respectively, prices are just not willing to roll over yet with uncertain Argentine production and Chinese demand coming out of Covid lockdown restrictions.
Prices closed steady to $.04 higher. Next resistance for Mch-23 is the Jan. high of $6.88 ¾, vs. today’s high of $6.86 ½. While rains overnight and today did occur over portions of Argentine, the heaviest amounts were in southern Buenos Aires alway from key production areas. Addition rainfall is expected thru midweek with coverage of these showers key to agricultural trading this week. A cooler, drier pattern is expected by late this week thru this coming weekend. Good harvest progress expected in central and northern Brazil as rainfall is expected to be slightly below normal. AgRural reports Brazilian 2nd corn crop is 25% planted, behind the YA pace of 42%. Export inspections at only 20 mil. bu. were at the low end of the expectations of 20 – 30 mil. YTD inspections at 514 mil. are down 35% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 22%. There were no shipments for China. Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry reports corn shipments since July have reached 16.7 mmt, down from 17.4 mmt at mid Feb-22. The USDA forecasts corn exports in the July thru June MY at 22.5 mmt. The 10 Year USDA Baseline projections are scheduled for release Wed. after the close at 2 PM CST.
Prices were higher across the board adding addition war premium as tensions in the Black Sea region continue to escalate. The high in Mch-23 Chicago at $7.96 is just shy of the Dec-23 high of $7.99. Mch-23 KC is approaching Fibonacci resistance at $9.17. Export inspections at 17 mil. bu. were in line with expectations and above the 14 mil. needed per week to reach the USDA export forecast. YTD inspections at 525 mil. bu. are down 2% vs. the USDA forecast of down 3%. Ukraine export since July-22 have reached 10.4 mmt, well below the 17.5 mmt at this point YA. A Filipino group reportedly bought 110k tons of Aussie or US feed wheat for shipment in June or July. The average price was $333.50/mt CF.
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